Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hugo Gaston, while the market favors Vit Kopriva (65%). 10 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Vit Kopriva

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Hugo Gaston (56%) · Hugo Gaston at 36¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 7

Hugo Gaston36¢Vit Kopriva64¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hugo Gaston

Consensus Traders

Hugo Gaston 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$59.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 35.5¢

-23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralHugo Gaston at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Gaston

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Vit Kopriva 65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hugo Gaston36%

Vit Kopriva65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hugo Gaston10 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares39,255

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Vit Kopriva8 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares23,116

Combined PnL+$175.08

Hugo Gaston — 56%Vit Kopriva — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Hugo Gaston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hugo Gaston) and the top 1000 (16 on Vit Kopriva) disagree here.

whaleVit Kopriva 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpVit Kopriva 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrHugo Gaston 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedHugo Gaston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vit Kopriva 56% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Vit Koprivaavg 47.8¢	$11.9K	$12.8K	+$970.41	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
└ Vit Kopriva leg	Vit Koprivaavg 47.8¢	$7.6K	$9.2K	+$1.5K
└ Hugo Gaston leg	Hugo Gastonavg 49.1¢	$4.2K	$3.7K	-$566.68
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Vit Koprivaavg 58.2¢	$10.7K	$10.9K	+$242.8	52% 13782-12582 (26364)
└ Vit Kopriva leg	Vit Koprivaavg 58.2¢	$6.6K	$7.5K	+$940.99
└ Hugo Gaston leg	Hugo Gastonavg 46.4¢	$4.7K	$3.4K	-$698.2
KK kkookkooCTR	Hugo Gastonavg 41.1¢	$9.4K	$9.6K	+$205.4	51% 605-579 (1184)
isco22	Vit Koprivaavg 61¢	$6.0K	$5.7K	-$295.08	63% 128-75 (203)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Hugo Gastonavg 50.6¢	$5.7K	$4.7K	-$971.33	51% 113-108 (221)
12xmrboltARB<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 45¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$129.89	44% 245-308 (553)
└ Hugo Gaston leg	Hugo Gastonavg 45¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$222.6
└ Vit Kopriva leg	Vit Koprivaavg 42.9¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$352.49
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Vit Koprivaavg 59¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$140.46	48% 920-988 (1908)
TH thestingsnake	Vit Koprivaavg 44.6¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	+$227.34	60% 4065-2738 (6803)
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793CTR	Hugo Gastonavg 64¢	$2.4K	$1.6K	-$823.53	63% 158-92 (250)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Vit Koprivaavg 59¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$24.6	51% 1445-1388 (2833)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041ARB<$100	Vit Koprivaavg 45.7¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$169.98	58% 222-163 (385)
└ Vit Kopriva leg	Vit Koprivaavg 45.7¢	$710.28	$902.29	+$192.01
└ Hugo Gaston leg	Hugo Gastonavg 45.3¢	$300	$277.97	-$22.03
NO Notradecopy	Vit Koprivaavg 35.9¢	$429.47	$694.54	+$265.07	49% 3921-4114 (8035)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Vit Koprivaavg 37¢	$224.71	$352.25	+$127.54	51% 3927-3842 (7769)
VeryLucky888CTR	Hugo Gastonavg 65.4¢	$313.79	$201.59	-$112.2	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Hugo Gastonavg 43¢	$200	$195.35	-$4.65	53% 3187-2811 (5998)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 46¢	$98.9	$90.3	-$8.6	50% 3869-3825 (7694)
HRTrading<$100	Vit Koprivaavg 60.1¢	$77.06	$84.89	+$7.83	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 39¢	$39	$42	+$3	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
poshposhCTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 58¢	$43.5	$31.5	-$12	59% 10160-7156 (17316)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 51¢	$5.1	$4.2	-$0.9	85% 5310-912 (6222)
SC SchruteBucks	Vit Koprivaavg 56¢	$139.44	$3.19	+$7.44	56% 1844-1439 (3283)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 66¢	$3.3	$2.2	-$1.1	48% 2389-2622 (5011)

RN1ARB<$100

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$11,850.06

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$970.41

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

Both legs:

Vit Kopriva$7,620.147.8¢+$1.5K

Hugo Gaston$4,229.9649.1¢-$566.68

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$10,666.43

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$242.8

Record

52%

13782-12582 (26364)

Both legs:

Vit Kopriva$6,580.8458.2¢+$940.99

Hugo Gaston$4,692.3546.4¢-$698.2

kkookkooCTR

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$9,394.63

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$205.4

Record

51%

605-579 (1184)

isco22

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$6,000

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$295.08

Record

63%

128-75 (203)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$5,719.33

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$971.33

Record

51%

113-108 (221)

12xmrboltARB<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$4,344

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$129.89

Record

44%

245-308 (553)

Both legs:

Hugo Gaston$3,34445¢-$222.6

Vit Kopriva$1,00042.9¢+$352.49

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$4,235.73

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$140.46

Record

48%

920-988 (1908)

thestingsnake

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$1,849.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$227.34

Record

60%

4065-2738 (6803)

0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793CTR

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$2,395.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$823.53

Record

63%

158-92 (250)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$1,467.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$24.6

Record

51%

1445-1388 (2833)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041ARB<$100

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$1,010.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$169.98

Record

58%

222-163 (385)

Both legs:

Vit Kopriva$710.2845.7¢+$192.01

Hugo Gaston$30045.3¢-$22.03

Notradecopy

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$429.47

Value

$694.54

PnL

+$265.07

Record

49%

3921-4114 (8035)

GamblingAddict12345

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$224.71

Value

$352.25

PnL

+$127.54

Record

51%

3927-3842 (7769)

VeryLucky888CTR

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$313.79

Value

$201.59

PnL

-$112.2

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$200

Value

$195.35

PnL

-$4.65

Record

53%

3187-2811 (5998)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$98.9

Value

$90.3

PnL

-$8.6

Record

50%

3869-3825 (7694)

HRTrading<$100

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$77.06

Value

$84.89

PnL

+$7.83

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$39

Value

$42

PnL

+$3

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

poshposhCTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$43.5

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$12

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.9

Record

85%

5310-912 (6222)

SchruteBucks

Vit Kopriva

Invested

$139.44

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$7.44

Record

56%

1844-1439 (3283)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$3.3

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$1.1

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

Research grade

NeutralHugo Gaston at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hugo Gaston

10 of 18 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Vit Kopriva 65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Hugo Gaston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Hugo Gaston) and the top 1000 (16 on Vit Kopriva) disagree here.

whaleVit Kopriva 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpVit Kopriva 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrHugo Gaston 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedHugo Gaston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Vit Kopriva 56% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hugo Gaston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.