Brest: Hugo Gaston vs Daniil Glinka

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Daniil Glinka (67%) · Daniil Glinka at 56¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 3

Hugo Gaston45¢Daniil Glinka55¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Daniil Glinka

Consensus Traders

Daniil Glinka 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.8K

Combined PnL

-$41.64

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 55.5¢

-11% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDaniil Glinka at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Daniil Glinka

10 of 15 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hugo Gaston45%

Daniil Glinka56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hugo Gaston5 traders

Total Value$11.8K

Total Shares32,309

Combined PnL-$252.83

Daniil Glinka10 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares26,242

Combined PnL+$211.18

Hugo Gaston — 33%Daniil Glinka — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkooCTR	Hugo Gastonavg 37.3¢	$12.0K	$11.7K	-$255.62	51% 581-566 (1147)
UP UpTheBlues	Daniil Glinkaavg 64.1¢	$11.4K	$11.1K	-$329.01	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
MR MrDoucheARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 59.5¢	$5.4K	$4.9K	-$550.08	83% 1684-355 (2039)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 59.5¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$184.92
└ Hugo Gaston leg	Hugo Gastonavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$735
RN1	Daniil Glinkaavg 63¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$24.16	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 66.4¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$265.35	54% 16871-14147 (31018)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 66.4¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$107.89
└ Hugo Gaston leg	Hugo Gastonavg 40.5¢	$1.3K	$886.23	-$373.25
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Daniil Glinkaavg 60.1¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$71.17	51% 1285-1225 (2510)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 60.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$54.65	52% 13567-12407 (25974)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 60.4¢	$846.09	$875.04	+$28.95
└ Hugo Gaston leg	Hugo Gastonavg 35.8¢	$534.71	$560.4	+$25.7
TH thestingsnake	Daniil Glinkaavg 47.2¢	$995.69	$1.2K	+$395.29	60% 3970-2672 (6642)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Daniil Glinkaavg 68.2¢	$395.66	$449.32	+$53.66	59% 30098-20824 (50922)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 47.1¢	$736.63	$374.73	+$128.24	54% 632-549 (1181)
└ Daniil Glinka leg	Daniil Glinkaavg 47.1¢	$182.44	$250.04	+$177.41
└ Hugo Gaston leg	Hugo Gastonavg 40.8¢	$143.16	$124.69	-$49.16
BI BillBenter2026	Daniil Glinkaavg 64.1¢	$122.51	$122.24	-$0.27	58% 18407-13505 (31912)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 63¢	$41.19	$43.15	+$1.96	56% 6915-5530 (12445)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 64¢	$35.2	$36.3	+$1.1	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
VeryLucky888<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 35¢	$20.25	$19.65	-$0.6	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
HRTrading<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 63.2¢	$16.65	$14.49	-$2.16	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 71.8¢	$75.35	$4.77	-$1.28	56% 1814-1413 (3227)
tradecraft<$100	Daniil Glinkaavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.73	+$0.23	52% 5878-5516 (11394)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 42¢	$4	$3.57	-$0.43	67% 23111-11517 (34628)
TRCMCTR<$100	Hugo Gastonavg 61¢	$1.94	$2.1	+$0.16	55% 3918-3148 (7066)

kkookkooCTR

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$12,000

Value

$11.7K

PnL

-$255.62

Record

51%

581-566 (1147)

UpTheBlues

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$11,430.67

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$329.01

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

MrDoucheARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$5,407.72

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$550.08

Record

83%

1684-355 (2039)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$3,607.7259.5¢+$184.92

Hugo Gaston$1,80060¢-$735

RN1

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$3,044.79

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$24.16

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$2,667.84

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$265.35

Record

54%

16871-14147 (31018)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$1,408.3666.4¢+$107.89

Hugo Gaston$1,259.4840.5¢-$373.25

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$1,760.3

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$71.17

Record

51%

1285-1225 (2510)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$1,380.8

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$54.65

Record

52%

13567-12407 (25974)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$846.0960.4¢+$28.95

Hugo Gaston$534.7135.8¢+$25.7

thestingsnake

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$995.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$395.29

Record

60%

3970-2672 (6642)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$395.66

Value

$449.32

PnL

+$53.66

Record

59%

30098-20824 (50922)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$736.63

Value

$374.73

PnL

+$128.24

Record

54%

632-549 (1181)

Both legs:

Daniil Glinka$182.4447.1¢+$177.41

Hugo Gaston$143.1640.8¢-$49.16

BillBenter2026

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$122.51

Value

$122.24

PnL

-$0.27

Record

58%

18407-13505 (31912)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$41.19

Value

$43.15

PnL

+$1.96

Record

56%

6915-5530 (12445)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$35.2

Value

$36.3

PnL

+$1.1

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

VeryLucky888<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$20.25

Value

$19.65

PnL

-$0.6

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

HRTrading<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$16.65

Value

$14.49

PnL

-$2.16

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

SchruteBucks<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$75.35

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$1.28

Record

56%

1814-1413 (3227)

tradecraft<$100

Daniil Glinka

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

5878-5516 (11394)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$0.43

Record

67%

23111-11517 (34628)

TRCMCTR<$100

Hugo Gaston

Invested

$1.94

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

3918-3148 (7066)

Research grade

NeutralDaniil Glinka at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Daniil Glinka

10 of 15 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Daniil Glinka wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.