Villa Maria: Valentin Garay vs Nicolas Bruna

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolas Bruna (71%) · Nicolas Bruna at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Valentin Garay<1¢Nicolas Bruna>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolas Bruna

Consensus Traders

Nicolas Bruna 71%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$23.25

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Bruna at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Bruna

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Valentin Garay0%

Nicolas Bruna100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolas Bruna5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,997

Combined PnL+$29.45

Valentin Garay2 traders

Total Value$5.42

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$6.2

Nicolas Bruna — 71%Valentin Garay — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnake	Nicolas Brunaavg 94.4¢	$972.3	$993.95	+$21.65	60% 4110-2768 (6878)
UP UpTheBlues	Nicolas Brunaavg 89.2¢	$778.84	$786.21	+$7.37	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
VeryLucky888	Nicolas Brunaavg 69.3¢	$108.34	$73.27	-$0.07	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Nicolas Brunaavg 70.3¢	$49.68	$50.89	+$1.21	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
RN1<$100	Nicolas Brunaavg 72¢	$17.25	$16.54	-$0.72	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Valentin Garayavg 24.4¢	$6.1	$5.41	-$0.69	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Valentin Garayavg 24¢	$5.52	$0.01	-$5.51	48% 8991-9637 (18628)

thestingsnake

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$972.3

Value

$993.95

PnL

+$21.65

Record

60%

4110-2768 (6878)

UpTheBlues

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$778.84

Value

$786.21

PnL

+$7.37

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

VeryLucky888

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$108.34

Value

$73.27

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$49.68

Value

$50.89

PnL

+$1.21

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

RN1<$100

Nicolas Bruna

Invested

$17.25

Value

$16.54

PnL

-$0.72

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Valentin Garay

Invested

$6.1

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$0.69

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Valentin Garay

Invested

$5.52

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.51

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Research grade

NeutralNicolas Bruna at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolas Bruna

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolas Bruna wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.