Guayaquil: Daniel Galan vs Mateo Del Pino
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Galan (88%) · Daniel Galan at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Daniel Galan
8
Daniel Galan 88%
$2.8K
-$68.23
96.8¢ → 96.7¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralDaniel Galan at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Daniel Galanavg 97.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$15.84 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
1L 1lovejump | Daniel Galanavg 97.1¢ | $773.14 | $737.83 | -$7.73 | 54% 630-547 (1177) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Daniel Galanavg 97.8¢ | $228.68 | $210.08 | -$18.6 | 52% 13563-12405 (25968) |
 VeryLucky888 | Daniel Galanavg 92.4¢ | $101.6 | $102.85 | +$1.25 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
BI BillBenter2026 | Daniel Galanavg 93.3¢ | $102.62 | $101.75 | -$0.87 | 58% 18402-13504 (31906) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Daniel Galanavg 93¢ | $18.6 | $18.7 | +$0.1 | 47% 2054-2350 (4404) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Mateo Del Pinoavg 7.1¢ | $40.65 | $14.12 | -$26.52 | 54% 55721-47803 (103524) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Daniel Galanavg 96.9¢ | $4.85 | $4.82 | -$0.02 | 52% 5875-5510 (11385) |
Invested
$1,626.06
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$15.84
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$773.14
Value
$737.83
PnL
-$7.73
Record
54%
630-547 (1177)
Invested
$228.68
Value
$210.08
PnL
-$18.6
Record
52%
13563-12405 (25968)
VeryLucky888Invested
$101.6
Value
$102.85
PnL
+$1.25
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$102.62
Value
$101.75
PnL
-$0.87
Record
58%
18402-13504 (31906)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$18.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
47%
2054-2350 (4404)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$40.65
Value
$14.12
PnL
-$26.52
Record
54%
55721-47803 (103524)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.82
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
5875-5510 (11385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Daniel Galan — $1.6K
1lovejump
Daniel Galan — $737.83
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Daniel Galan — $210.08
VeryLucky888
Daniel Galan — $102.85
BillBenter2026
Daniel Galan — $101.75
ameisgoat11
Daniel Galan — $18.7
RN1
CTRMateo Del Pino — $14.12
tradecraft
Daniel Galan — $4.82