Guayaquil: Daniel Galan vs Lautaro Midon
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Daniel Galan (83%) · Daniel Galan at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Daniel Galan
6
Daniel Galan 83%
$1.4K
-$36.51
27.8¢ → 50¢
+80% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralDaniel Galan at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Daniel Galan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thestingsnake | Daniel Galanavg 28.4¢ | $428.2 | $754.5 | -$315.02 | 60% 4003-2690 (6693) |
UP UpTheBlues | Daniel Galanavg 29.4¢ | $274 | $456.5 | +$182.5 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
 TRCM<$100 | Daniel Galanavg 20¢ | $38 | $95 | +$57 | 55% 3925-3163 (7088) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Daniel Galanavg 22.4¢ | $23.33 | $52.05 | +$28.72 | 54% 17008-14254 (31262) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Daniel Galanavg 17.9¢ | $10.05 | $18.32 | +$8.27 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Lautaro Midonavg 57¢ | $1.47 | $3.49 | +$2.02 | — |
Invested
$428.2
Value
$754.5
PnL
-$315.02
Record
60%
4003-2690 (6693)
Invested
$274
Value
$456.5
PnL
+$182.5
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
TRCM<$100Invested
$38
Value
$95
PnL
+$57
Record
55%
3925-3163 (7088)
Invested
$23.33
Value
$52.05
PnL
+$28.72
Record
54%
17008-14254 (31262)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.05
Value
$18.32
PnL
+$8.27
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$1.47
Value
$3.49
PnL
+$2.02
Record
—
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.