Orleans: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Dusan Lajovic

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Buvaysar Gadamauri (29%) · Buvaysar Gadamauri at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Buvaysar Gadamauri55¢Dusan Lajovic45¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Consensus Traders

Buvaysar Gadamauri 29%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$29.96

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralBuvaysar Gadamauri at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Buvaysar Gadamauri

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Buvaysar Gadamauri55%

Dusan Lajovic46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Buvaysar Gadamauri2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,846

Combined PnL+$18.2

Dusan Lajovic5 traders

Total Value$886.72

Total Shares1,898

Combined PnL+$11.76

Buvaysar Gadamauri — 29%Dusan Lajovic — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 54¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$18.55	48% 214-230 (444)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 45¢	$639	$646.1	+$7.1	1% 2-197 (199)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 50¢	$126.48	$127.74	+$1.26	61% 891-567 (1458)
0xheavy888CTR	Dusan Lajovicavg 49¢	$101.46	$104.57	+$3.11	56% 99-79 (178)
RN1CTR<$100	Dusan Lajovicavg 45¢	$5.73	$5.79	+$0.06	58% 3746-2702 (6448)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Buvaysar Gadamauriavg 52.7¢	$5.63	$5.28	-$0.35	34% 163-316 (479)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Dusan Lajovicavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.53	+$0.23	22% 141-486 (627)

VeryLucky888

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$2,071.79

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$18.55

Record

48%

214-230 (444)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$639

Value

$646.1

PnL

+$7.1

Record

2-197 (199)

darkumbreon88CTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$126.48

Value

$127.74

PnL

+$1.26

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

0xheavy888CTR

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$101.46

Value

$104.57

PnL

+$3.11

Record

56%

99-79 (178)

RN1CTR<$100

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.79

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

3746-2702 (6448)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$0.35

Record

34%

163-316 (479)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Dusan Lajovic

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.23

Record

22%

141-486 (627)

Research grade

NeutralBuvaysar Gadamauri at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Buvaysar Gadamauri

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Buvaysar Gadamauri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.