Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Santiago De la Fuente, while the market favors Ignacio Monzon (67%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lima: Santiago De la Fuente vs Ignacio Monzon

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Santiago De la Fuente (64%) · Santiago De la Fuente at 34¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15

Santiago De la Fuente34¢Ignacio Monzon66¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Santiago De la Fuente

Consensus Traders

Santiago De la Fuente 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$408.87

Smart Money Entry

57.6¢ → 33.5¢

-42% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralSantiago De la Fuente at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Santiago De la Fuente

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Ignacio Monzon 67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Santiago De la Fuente34%

Ignacio Monzon67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Santiago De la Fuente7 traders

Total Value$692.29

Total Shares1,807

Combined PnL-$366.26

Ignacio Monzon4 traders

Total Value$36.86

Total Shares198

Combined PnL-$42.6

Santiago De la Fuente — 64%Ignacio Monzon — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 68.8¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	+$46.57	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Ignacio Monzon leg	Ignacio Monzonavg 35.6¢	$1.2K	$2.2K	+$1.0K
└ Santiago De la Fuente leg	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 68.8¢	$1.8K	$927.01	-$956
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 51¢	$995	$1.0K	+$5	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
└ Ignacio Monzon leg	Ignacio Monzonavg 48.5¢	$485	$645	+$160
└ Santiago De la Fuente leg	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 51¢	$510	$355	-$155
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 60.6¢	$636.14	$321.64	-$261.21	60% 4593-3091 (7684)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 63.2¢	$165.75	$174.28	+$8.53	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
└ Santiago De la Fuente leg	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 63.2¢	$123.25	$137.4	+$14.15
└ Ignacio Monzon leg	Ignacio Monzonavg 34¢	$42.5	$36.88	-$5.63
OJ ojgCTR	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 52¢	$260	$167.5	-$92.5	51% 3965-3777 (7742)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 66¢	$68.86	$73.58	+$4.72	65% 25410-13589 (38999)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 51¢	$68.31	$52.29	-$16.02	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 56¢	$35.65	$29.59	+$9.62	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 52.2¢	$39.38	$27.76	-$11.63	57% 20227-15044 (35271)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Santiago De la Fuenteavg 64¢	$19.2	$19.95	+$0.75	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
VE Venusian	Ignacio Monzonavg 45¢	$117.09	$15.22	-$37.47	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Ignacio Monzonavg 40¢	$7.88	$13.1	+$5.22	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	Ignacio Monzonavg 31¢	$50.72	$7.1	-$8.62	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
RN1<$100	Ignacio Monzonavg 29.8¢	$10.62	$1.43	-$1.73	53% 70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$3,444.42

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$46.57

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Ignacio Monzon$1,238.3635.6¢+$1.0K

Santiago De la Fuente$1,795.2968.8¢-$956

GaditimaARB<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$995

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$5

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

Both legs:

Ignacio Monzon$48548.5¢+$160

Santiago De la Fuente$51051¢-$155

thestingsnakeCTR

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$636.14

Value

$321.64

PnL

-$261.21

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$165.75

Value

$174.28

PnL

+$8.53

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

Both legs:

Santiago De la Fuente$123.2563.2¢+$14.15

Ignacio Monzon$42.534¢-$5.63

ojgCTR

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$260

Value

$167.5

PnL

-$92.5

Record

51%

3965-3777 (7742)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$68.86

Value

$73.58

PnL

+$4.72

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$68.31

Value

$52.29

PnL

-$16.02

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$35.65

Value

$29.59

PnL

+$9.62

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$39.38

Value

$27.76

PnL

-$11.63

Record

57%

20227-15044 (35271)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Santiago De la Fuente

Invested

$19.2

Value

$19.95

PnL

+$0.75

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

Venusian

Ignacio Monzon

Invested

$117.09

Value

$15.22

PnL

-$37.47

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Ignacio Monzon

Invested

$7.88

Value

$13.1

PnL

+$5.22

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

Ignacio Monzon

Invested

$50.72

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$8.62

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

RN1<$100

Ignacio Monzon

Invested

$10.62

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$1.73

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Research grade

NeutralSantiago De la Fuente at 34%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Santiago De la Fuente

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Ignacio Monzon 67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Santiago De la Fuente wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.