BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Taylor Fritz (38%) · Taylor Fritz at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 21

Taylor Fritz85¢Thiago Agustin Tirante15¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Taylor Fritz

Consensus Traders

Taylor Fritz 38%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$1.04

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 84.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTaylor Fritz at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Taylor Fritz

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Taylor Fritz85%

Thiago Agustin Tirante16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Taylor Fritz3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,660

Combined PnL+$1.76

Thiago Agustin Tirante5 traders

Total Value$417.65

Total Shares2,700

Combined PnL-$2.8

Taylor Fritz — 38%Thiago Agustin Tirante — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Taylor Fritz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThiago Agustin Tirante 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Thiago Agustin Tirante 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Taylor Fritzavg 84¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 15.4¢	$340.22	$341.91	+$1.69	48% 269-290 (559)
0xheavy888	Taylor Fritzavg 84¢	$291.22	$292.95	+$1.73	55% 452-372 (824)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 16¢	$52	$50.38	-$1.63	68% 2630-1225 (3855)
0X 0x1b296Ecf556EF9a93887C82836343f58C1Ff1227-1721909506760CTR<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 17¢	$20	$17.65	-$2.35	— 0-7 (7)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 16¢	$5.76	$5.4	-$0.36	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 84¢	$4.2	$4.23	+$0.02	41% 631-924 (1555)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Thiago Agustin Tiranteavg 16¢	$2.47	$2.32	-$0.15	46% 455-543 (998)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$1,938.79

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$340.22

Value

$341.91

PnL

+$1.69

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

0xheavy888

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$291.22

Value

$292.95

PnL

+$1.73

Record

55%

452-372 (824)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$52

Value

$50.38

PnL

-$1.63

Record

68%

2630-1225 (3855)

0x1b296Ecf556EF9a93887C82836343f58C1Ff1227-1721909506760CTR<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$20

Value

$17.65

PnL

-$2.35

Record

—

0-7 (7)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$5.76

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

ameisgoat11<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

41%

631-924 (1555)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.32

PnL

-$0.15

Record

46%

455-543 (998)

Research grade

NeutralTaylor Fritz at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Taylor Fritz

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Taylor Fritz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThiago Agustin Tirante 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Thiago Agustin Tirante 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Taylor Fritz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.