Swiss Indoors Basel: Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Taylor Fritz (100%) · Taylor Fritz at 67¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
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Neutral
Taylor Fritz
3
Taylor Fritz 100%
$2.0K
$3.62
66.9¢ → 67¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTaylor Fritz at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Taylor Fritzavg 66.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$4.24 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Taylor Fritzavg 67¢ | $83.08 | $82.46 | -$0.62 | 55% 6989-5609 (12598) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Taylor Fritzavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.35 | +$0 | 47% 2160-2464 (4624) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.