Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Holger Rune, while the market favors Taylor Fritz (66%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Taylor Fritz vs Holger Rune

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Holger Rune (90%) · Holger Rune at 35¢ · $980 held · ends Nov 19

Taylor Fritz66¢Holger Rune34¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Holger Rune

Consensus Traders

Holger Rune 90%

Total Value

$980.26

Combined PnL

-$7.33

Smart Money Entry

34.3¢ → 34.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralHolger Rune at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Holger Rune

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Taylor Fritz 66%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Taylor Fritz66%

Holger Rune35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Holger Rune9 traders

Total Value$975.26

Total Shares2,868

Combined PnL-$7.28

Taylor Fritz1 trader

Total Value$5

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.05

Holger Rune — 90%Taylor Fritz — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Holger Rune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHolger Rune 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedHolger Rune 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Holger Rune 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-PCTR	Holger Runeavg 34¢	$289	$289	+$0	26% 152-423 (575)
NM NM-PCTR	Holger Runeavg 34¢	$239.12	$239.12	+$0	59% 3534-2412 (5946)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Holger Runeavg 35¢	$192.35	$187	-$5.35	33% 544-1092 (1636)
0xheavy888CTR	Holger Runeavg 34¢	$103.58	$103.58	+$0	54% 266-226 (492)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Holger Runeavg 34¢	$52.66	$52.66	+$0	52% 737-689 (1426)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Holger Runeavg 35¢	$39.37	$38.25	-$1.12	32% 528-1110 (1638)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Holger Runeavg 34¢	$37.74	$37.74	+$0	53% 182-164 (346)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Holger Runeavg 35¢	$28.2	$27.39	-$0.81	33% 541-1119 (1660)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 66¢	$5.05	$5	-$0.05	37% 472-787 (1259)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Holger Runeavg 34¢	$0.52	$0.52	-$0	19% 121-529 (650)

GC-PCTR

Holger Rune

Invested

$289

Value

$289

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

152-423 (575)

NM-PCTR

Holger Rune

Invested

$239.12

Value

$239.12

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3534-2412 (5946)

MadridTimeCTR

Holger Rune

Invested

$192.35

Value

$187

PnL

-$5.35

Record

33%

544-1092 (1636)

0xheavy888CTR

Holger Rune

Invested

$103.58

Value

$103.58

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

266-226 (492)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$52.66

Value

$52.66

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

737-689 (1426)

VenusianCTR<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$39.37

Value

$38.25

PnL

-$1.12

Record

32%

528-1110 (1638)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$37.74

Value

$37.74

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

182-164 (346)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$28.2

Value

$27.39

PnL

-$0.81

Record

33%

541-1119 (1660)

ameisgoat11<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$5.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

472-787 (1259)

hi774cCTR<$100

Holger Rune

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0

Record

19%

121-529 (650)

Research grade

NeutralHolger Rune at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Holger Rune

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Taylor Fritz 66%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Holger Rune. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHolger Rune 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedHolger Rune 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Holger Rune 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Holger Rune wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.