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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

Fritz vs. Musetti: Match O/U 22.5

Resolved Under. 13% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Over 14%

Total Value

$17.5K

Combined PnL

$288.04

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,937

Combined PnL$-10.0K

Under7 traders

Total Value$17.5K

Total Shares17,485

Combined PnL+$10.3K

Over — 13%Under — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO PonzioPeraltroCTR	Overavg 59¢	$10.0K	—	$-10.0K	— 0-2 (2)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 41.1¢	$2.7K	$6.6K	+$3.9K	47% 191-212 (403)
BA Bagwell306	Underavg 41¢	$2.1K	$5.1K	+$3.0K	33% 64-132 (196)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 40.8¢	$2.1K	$5.1K	+$3.0K	53% 1030-921 (1951)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 50¢	$248.65	$497.5	+$248.85	36% 432-771 (1203)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 41¢	$20.5	$50	+$29.5	53% 634-568 (1202)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 18¢	$7.42	$41.22	+$33.8	37% 659-1143 (1802)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Underavg 50¢	$200	—	+$0	75% 112-37 (149)

PonzioPeraltroCTR

Invested

$10,000

Value

—

PnL

$-10.0K

Record

—

0-2 (2)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$2,719.32

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

Invested

$2,108.4

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

33%

64-132 (196)

Invested

$2,093.96

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$248.65

Value

$497.5

PnL

+$248.85

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

Invested

$20.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$29.5

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$7.42

Value

$41.22

PnL

+$33.8

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Invested

$200

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

75%

112-37 (149)

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xaa29f132...cf6097

Slug

atp-fritz-musetti-2026-11-13-match-total-22pt5

Traders in this Market

PonzioPeraltro

Over — $0

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under — $6.6K

Bagwell306

Under — $5.1K

VeryLucky888

Under — $5.1K

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under — $497.5

NotJump

Under — $50

topdogbigboi

Under — $41.22

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Under — $0

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