Swiss Indoors Basel: Taylor Fritz vs Rinky Hijikata
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Taylor Fritz (60%) · Taylor Fritz at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Taylor Fritz
5
Taylor Fritz 60%
$3.5K
-$35.88
87.7¢ → 87.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralTaylor Fritz at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PA Paul973973 | Taylor Fritzavg 87.8¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$60.66 | 89% 883-110 (993) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Rinky Hijikataavg 12.6¢ | $231.17 | $230.94 | -$0.23 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Rinky Hijikataavg 12.5¢ | $201.56 | $226.58 | +$25.01 | 62% 13612-8454 (22066) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Taylor Fritzavg 86¢ | $64.49 | $64.49 | -$0 | 56% 6913-5526 (12439) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Taylor Fritzavg 86¢ | $4.3 | $4.3 | +$0 | 47% 2044-2347 (4391) |
Invested
$3,000
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$60.66
Record
89%
883-110 (993)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$231.17
Value
$230.94
PnL
-$0.23
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
Invested
$201.56
Value
$226.58
PnL
+$25.01
Record
62%
13612-8454 (22066)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$64.49
Value
$64.49
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
6913-5526 (12439)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.3
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2044-2347 (4391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.