Swiss Indoors Basel: Taylor Fritz vs Arthur Fils

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Arthur Fils (57%) · Arthur Fils at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Taylor Fritz50¢Arthur Fils50¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arthur Fils

Consensus Traders

Arthur Fils 57%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$13.06

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralArthur Fils at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fils

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Taylor Fritz50%

Arthur Fils51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arthur Fils4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,914

Combined PnL-$24.93

Taylor Fritz3 traders

Total Value$945.93

Total Shares1,937

Combined PnL+$11.88

Arthur Fils — 57%Taylor Fritz — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Arthur Filsavg 51.5¢	$1.3K	$631.25	-$30.78	45% 396-490 (886)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Taylor Fritzavg 48¢	$598.42	$604.65	+$6.23	53% 5564-4927 (10491)
VeryLucky888	Arthur Filsavg 50¢	$435.16	$439.51	+$4.35	58% 41434-30051 (71485)
38 38791873984189	Arthur Filsavg 50.5¢	$351.25	$351.27	+$0.02	46% 7787-9202 (16989)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Taylor Fritzavg 49¢	$316.78	$320.01	+$3.23	62% 13683-8532 (22215)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Arthur Filsavg 50¢	$49	$50.47	+$1.47	58% 28351-20930 (49281)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Taylor Fritzavg 43¢	$18.86	$21.27	+$2.41	52% 4697-4417 (9114)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Arthur Fils

Invested

$1,275.23

Value

$631.25

PnL

-$30.78

Record

45%

396-490 (886)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$598.42

Value

$604.65

PnL

+$6.23

Record

53%

5564-4927 (10491)

VeryLucky888

Arthur Fils

Invested

$435.16

Value

$439.51

PnL

+$4.35

Record

58%

41434-30051 (71485)

38791873984189

Arthur Fils

Invested

$351.25

Value

$351.27

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

7787-9202 (16989)

LilybaeumCTR

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$316.78

Value

$320.01

PnL

+$3.23

Record

62%

13683-8532 (22215)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Arthur Fils

Invested

$49

Value

$50.47

PnL

+$1.47

Record

58%

28351-20930 (49281)

hi774cCTR<$100

Taylor Fritz

Invested

$18.86

Value

$21.27

PnL

+$2.41

Record

52%

4697-4417 (9114)

Research grade

NeutralArthur Fils at 51%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fils

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arthur Fils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.