Matsuyama: Jay Dylan Friend vs Naoya Honda
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jay Dylan Friend (60%) · Jay Dylan Friend at 79¢ · $224 held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Jay Dylan Friend
5
Jay Dylan Friend 60%
$224.23
-$0.8
79.7¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJay Dylan Friend at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Jay Dylan Friend. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Jay Dylan Friendavg 80¢ | $157.56 | $153.62 | -$3.94 | 56% 117-91 (208) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Jay Dylan Friendavg 78¢ | $24.18 | $24.34 | +$0.16 | 51% 252-247 (499) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Naoya Hondaavg 20¢ | $19.78 | $21.26 | +$1.48 | 25% 224-671 (895) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Naoya Hondaavg 20¢ | $19.61 | $21.08 | +$1.47 | 26% 229-666 (895) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Jay Dylan Friendavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.93 | +$0.03 | 25% 171-513 (684) |
0xheavy888Invested
$157.56
Value
$153.62
PnL
-$3.94
Record
56%
117-91 (208)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$24.18
Value
$24.34
PnL
+$0.16
Record
51%
252-247 (499)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$21.26
PnL
+$1.48
Record
25%
224-671 (895)
Invested
$19.61
Value
$21.08
PnL
+$1.47
Record
26%
229-666 (895)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$0.03
Record
25%
171-513 (684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.