Ningbo: Sergey Fomin vs Liam Broady

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sergey Fomin (90%) · Sergey Fomin at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Sergey Fomin90¢Liam Broady10¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sergey Fomin

Consensus Traders

Sergey Fomin 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$302.93

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 89.5¢

+55% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralSergey Fomin at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sergey Fomin

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sergey Fomin90%

Liam Broady11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sergey Fomin9 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,850

Combined PnL+$288.59

Liam Broady1 trader

Total Value$77.97

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$14.34

Sergey Fomin — 90%Liam Broady — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EF efntrick	Sergey Fominavg 66¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$88.32	48% 3606-3861 (7467)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Liam Broadyavg 45.6¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	-$860.59	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
└ Sergey Fomin leg	Sergey Fominavg 23.9¢	$162.62	$601.18	+$438.56
└ Liam Broady leg	Liam Broadyavg 45.6¢	$1.7K	$438.27	$-1.3K
TH thestingsnake	Sergey Fominavg 40.9¢	$463.11	$713.73	+$344.56	60% 3888-2641 (6529)
tradecraft	Sergey Fominavg 69.4¢	$491.54	$553.4	+$61.86	52% 5809-5432 (11241)
BI BillBenter2026	Sergey Fominavg 78.9¢	$98.62	$111.88	+$13.25	58% 18292-13443 (31735)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Liam Broadyavg 71¢	$63.63	$77.97	+$14.34	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
HRTrading<$100	Sergey Fominavg 55.8¢	$17.01	$25.47	+$8.46	54% 2551-2184 (4735)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Sergey Fominavg 28¢	$49.42	$22.95	-$26.48	50% 3672-3643 (7315)
TRCM	Sergey Fominavg 32¢	$128.78	$17.39	-$23.82	55% 3891-3121 (7012)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Sergey Fominavg 16¢	$13.99	$12.51	-$1.48	49% 18385-18813 (37198)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Sergey Fominavg 28¢	$3.06	$3.61	+$0.56	52% 13467-12324 (25791)

efntrick

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$1,809.64

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$88.32

Record

48%

3606-3861 (7467)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Liam Broady

Invested

$1,900.04

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$860.59

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

Both legs:

Sergey Fomin$162.6223.9¢+$438.56

Liam Broady$1,737.4245.6¢$-1.3K

thestingsnake

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$463.11

Value

$713.73

PnL

+$344.56

Record

60%

3888-2641 (6529)

tradecraft

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$491.54

Value

$553.4

PnL

+$61.86

Record

52%

5809-5432 (11241)

BillBenter2026

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$98.62

Value

$111.88

PnL

+$13.25

Record

58%

18292-13443 (31735)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Liam Broady

Invested

$63.63

Value

$77.97

PnL

+$14.34

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

HRTrading<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$17.01

Value

$25.47

PnL

+$8.46

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

NatoAlfista<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$49.42

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$26.48

Record

50%

3672-3643 (7315)

TRCM

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$128.78

Value

$17.39

PnL

-$23.82

Record

55%

3891-3121 (7012)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$13.99

Value

$12.51

PnL

-$1.48

Record

49%

18385-18813 (37198)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Sergey Fomin

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$0.56

Record

52%

13467-12324 (25791)

Research grade

NeutralSergey Fomin at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sergey Fomin

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sergey Fomin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.