Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Moise Kouame
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (33%) · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at 73¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9
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Neutral
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 33%
$4.6K
-$53.72
Research grade
NeutralAlejandro Davidovich Fokina at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
K5 k56 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokinaavg 73.7¢ | $4.0K | $4.1K | -$64.41 | 57% 890-659 (1549) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Moise Kouameavg 26.5¢ | $556.96 | $567.46 | +$10.5 | 58% 43237-31478 (74715) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Moise Kouameavg 27¢ | $10.53 | $10.53 | +$0.2 | 57% 29550-21866 (51416) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.