Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Arthur Fery, while the market favors Lorenzo Musetti (54%). 12 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Erste Bank Open: Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti

12 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Arthur Fery (46%) · Arthur Fery at 47¢ · $167K held · ends Nov 5

Arthur Fery47¢Lorenzo Musetti53¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Arthur Fery

Consensus Traders

Arthur Fery 46%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$167.3K

Combined PnL

$4.6K

Smart Money Entry

43.8¢ → 46.5¢

+6% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralArthur Fery at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fery

12 of 26 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Lorenzo Musetti 54%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Arthur Fery47%

Lorenzo Musetti54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arthur Fery12 traders

Total Value$84.1K

Total Shares163,070

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Lorenzo Musetti14 traders

Total Value$20.5K

Total Shares40,009

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Arthur Fery — 46%Lorenzo Musetti — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fery. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArthur Fery 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpLorenzo Musetti 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrArthur Fery 50% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Musetti 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Lorenzo Musetti 54% · 26

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Arthur Feryavg 48.5¢	$35.3K	$36.2K	+$869.26	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 60¢	$37.0K	$31.7K	$-8.6K	49% 18841-19244 (38085)
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 60¢	$24.5K	$20.4K	$-4.1K
└ Arthur Fery leg	Arthur Feryavg 55.5¢	$12.5K	$11.3K	$-4.5K
KK kkookkooCTR	Arthur Feryavg 27.4¢	$7.5K	$13.7K	+$6.2K	51% 588-573 (1161)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Arthur Feryavg 47.4¢	$14.0K	$12.7K	$-1.3K	54% 17008-14254 (31262)
└ Arthur Fery leg	Arthur Feryavg 47.4¢	$8.5K	$9.0K	+$463.69
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 73.3¢	$5.4K	$3.7K	$-1.7K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 48.7¢	$11.5K	$11.7K	+$202.93	52% 13665-12485 (26150)
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 48.7¢	$5.9K	$6.0K	+$151.52
└ Arthur Fery leg	Arthur Feryavg 49.5¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$51.41
LU LuzzzerCTR	Arthur Feryavg 48.8¢	$11.0K	$11.3K	+$281.72	46% 109-130 (239)
RN1CTR	Arthur Feryavg 41¢	$8.9K	$10.9K	$-1.2K	54% 56046-48172 (104218)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Arthur Feryavg 53¢	$6.6K	$6.3K	-$376.06	52% 111-103 (214)
KA kahe	Lorenzo Musettiavg 46.5¢	$4.8K	$5.2K	+$363.21	68% 587-278 (865)
GH ghostorderARB<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 51¢	$3.9K	$4.8K	+$544.55	62% 4322-2665 (6987)
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 51¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	+$1.0K
└ Arthur Fery leg	Arthur Feryavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$481
PE petyas231	Lorenzo Musettiavg 45¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$726.71	32% 51-107 (158)
IL Illiasca	Lorenzo Musettiavg 66.1¢	$4.0K	$3.0K	-$972.97	65% 265-144 (409)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Arthur Feryavg 37.2¢	$1.9K	$2.6K	+$380.23	38% 480-795 (1275)
Reformedx	Lorenzo Musettiavg 58.8¢	$2.9K	$2.5K	-$440	52% 805-755 (1560)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Lorenzo Musettiavg 77.7¢	$4.2K	$2.3K	-$644	51% 1360-1299 (2659)
TG tghj20	Lorenzo Musettiavg 47¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$109.83	50% 56-57 (113)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Arthur Feryavg 37.9¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	-$108.16	60% 4003-2690 (6693)
PL pltrkr111	Lorenzo Musettiavg 73¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$630.14	54% 723-608 (1331)
0X 0x1111111111ARB<$100	Arthur Feryavg 52.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$28.9	61% 1751-1104 (2855)
└ Arthur Fery leg	Arthur Feryavg 52.9¢	$858.97	$812.62	-$46.35
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 45.8¢	$188.17	$205.62	+$17.45
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Lorenzo Musettiavg 46.8¢	$674.5	$836.6	+$162.09	44% 390-489 (879)
SE sentrioCTR	Arthur Feryavg 55¢	$735.53	$668.67	-$66.87	50% 24878-24578 (49456)
tradecraftARB<$100	Lorenzo Musettiavg 68.9¢	$569.18	$643.21	-$26.39	51% 5927-5605 (11532)
└ Arthur Fery leg	Arthur Feryavg 35.2¢	$228.13	$323.92	-$4.63
└ Lorenzo Musetti leg	Lorenzo Musettiavg 68.9¢	$440.03	$319.3	-$21.76
TRCMCTR	Arthur Feryavg 45.2¢	$435.15	$479.72	+$44.57	55% 3925-3163 (7088)
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048CTR	Arthur Feryavg 49¢	$300	$306.12	+$6.12	68% 255-118 (373)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Arthur Feryavg 54¢	$250	$231.48	-$18.52	58% 212-151 (363)

UpTheBluesCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$35,349.86

Value

$36.2K

PnL

+$869.26

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$37,022.86

Value

$31.7K

PnL

$-8.6K

Record

49%

18841-19244 (38085)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Musetti$24,500.760¢$-4.1K

Arthur Fery$12,522.1655.5¢$-4.5K

kkookkooCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$7,500

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

51%

588-573 (1161)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Arthur Fery

Invested

$13,969.82

Value

$12.7K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

17008-14254 (31262)

Both legs:

Arthur Fery$8,530.247.4¢+$463.69

Lorenzo Musetti$5,439.6273.3¢$-1.7K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$11,486.91

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$202.93

Record

52%

13665-12485 (26150)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Musetti$5,86748.7¢+$151.52

Arthur Fery$5,619.9149.5¢+$51.41

LuzzzerCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$11,000

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$281.72

Record

46%

109-130 (239)

RN1CTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$8,898.23

Value

$10.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

56046-48172 (104218)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$6,643.67

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$376.06

Record

52%

111-103 (214)

kahe

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$4,836.79

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$363.21

Record

68%

587-278 (865)

ghostorderARB<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$3,888.82

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$544.55

Record

62%

4322-2665 (6987)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Musetti$3,607.151¢+$1.0K

Arthur Fery$1,37853¢-$481

petyas231

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$2,576.48

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$726.71

Record

32%

51-107 (158)

Illiasca

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$972.97

Record

65%

265-144 (409)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$1,929.2

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$380.23

Record

38%

480-795 (1275)

Reformedx

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$2,940

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$440

Record

52%

805-755 (1560)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$4,200

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$644

Record

51%

1360-1299 (2659)

tghj20

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$1,720.61

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$109.83

Record

50%

56-57 (113)

thestingsnakeCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$1,200.46

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$108.16

Record

60%

4003-2690 (6693)

pltrkr111

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$630.14

Record

54%

723-608 (1331)

0x1111111111ARB<$100

Arthur Fery

Invested

$1,047.13

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$28.9

Record

61%

1751-1104 (2855)

Both legs:

Arthur Fery$858.9752.9¢-$46.35

Lorenzo Musetti$188.1745.8¢+$17.45

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$674.5

Value

$836.6

PnL

+$162.09

Record

44%

390-489 (879)

sentrioCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$735.53

Value

$668.67

PnL

-$66.87

Record

50%

24878-24578 (49456)

tradecraftARB<$100

Lorenzo Musetti

Invested

$569.18

Value

$643.21

PnL

-$26.39

Record

51%

5927-5605 (11532)

Both legs:

Arthur Fery$228.1335.2¢-$4.63

Lorenzo Musetti$440.0368.9¢-$21.76

TRCMCTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$435.15

Value

$479.72

PnL

+$44.57

Record

55%

3925-3163 (7088)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048CTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$300

Value

$306.12

PnL

+$6.12

Record

68%

255-118 (373)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Arthur Fery

Invested

$250

Value

$231.48

PnL

-$18.52

Record

58%

212-151 (363)

Research grade

NeutralArthur Fery at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Arthur Fery

12 of 26 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Lorenzo Musetti 54%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Arthur Fery. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleArthur Fery 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpLorenzo Musetti 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrArthur Fery 50% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedLorenzo Musetti 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Lorenzo Musetti 54% · 26

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Arthur Fery wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.