Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kilian Feldbausch, while the market favors Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (56%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Brest: Kilian Feldbausch vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kilian Feldbausch (50%) · Kilian Feldbausch at 45¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Kilian Feldbausch45¢Nicolai Budkov Kjaer55¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kilian Feldbausch

Consensus Traders

Kilian Feldbausch 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$148.28

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 44.5¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kilian Feldbausch45%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kilian Feldbausch4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares9,329

Combined PnL+$256.26

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer4 traders

Total Value$523.4

Total Shares1,059

Combined PnL-$107.98

Kilian Feldbausch — 50%Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 36.9¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$573.58	54% 55318-47360 (102678)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 44.6¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$406.22	37% 467-783 (1250)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 56.7¢	$1.1K	$786.63	-$336.99	48% 3613-3865 (7478)
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 56.7¢	$946.32	$625.45	-$328.96
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 37.6¢	$97	$161.18	-$8.03
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Kilian Feldbauschavg 47.7¢	$484.32	$572.94	+$88.62	59% 44247-30614 (74861)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 40¢	$284	$333.25	+$49.25	54% 16738-14040 (30778)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 40¢	$196	$257.25	+$61.25
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 55¢	$88	$76	-$12
TH thestingsnake	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 58.7¢	$363.06	$214.53	-$139.84	60% 3897-2643 (6540)
GH ghostorder	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 55¢	$137.5	$163.75	+$26.25	62% 4229-2609 (6838)
0xheavy888	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 62.7¢	$134.41	$140.37	+$5.96	56% 6840-5478 (12318)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 33¢	$6.52	$6.8	+$0.28	58% 40382-29168 (69550)
TRCM<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 51¢	$5.1	$4.75	-$0.35	55% 3893-3124 (7017)

RN1CTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,983.8

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$573.58

Record

54%

55318-47360 (102678)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,799.49

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$406.22

Record

37%

467-783 (1250)

efntrickARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$1,108.8

Value

$786.63

PnL

-$336.99

Record

48%

3613-3865 (7478)

Both legs:

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$946.3256.7¢-$328.96

Kilian Feldbausch$9737.6¢-$8.03

UpTheBluesCTR

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$484.32

Value

$572.94

PnL

+$88.62

Record

59%

44247-30614 (74861)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$284

Value

$333.25

PnL

+$49.25

Record

54%

16738-14040 (30778)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$19640¢+$61.25

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$8855¢-$12

thestingsnake

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$363.06

Value

$214.53

PnL

-$139.84

Record

60%

3897-2643 (6540)

ghostorder

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$137.5

Value

$163.75

PnL

+$26.25

Record

62%

4229-2609 (6838)

0xheavy888

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$134.41

Value

$140.37

PnL

+$5.96

Record

56%

6840-5478 (12318)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$6.52

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

40382-29168 (69550)

TRCM<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.35

Record

55%

3893-3124 (7017)

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 45%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kilian Feldbausch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.