BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Max Dahlin

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Etcheverry (38%) · Tomas Etcheverry at 82¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Tomas Etcheverry82¢Max Dahlin18¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tomas Etcheverry

Consensus Traders

Tomas Etcheverry 38%

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$53.77

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 81.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTomas Etcheverry at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Etcheverry

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tomas Etcheverry82%

Max Dahlin19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Etcheverry6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares6,430

Combined PnL-$29.29

Max Dahlin10 traders

Total Value$782.49

Total Shares4,132

Combined PnL-$24.48

Tomas Etcheverry — 38%Max Dahlin — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Tomas Etcheverry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Tomas Etcheverry) and the top 1000 (6 on Max Dahlin) disagree here.

whaleMax Dahlin 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrMax Dahlin 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTomas Etcheverry 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Max Dahlin 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR prabam	Tomas Etcheverryavg 82.7¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$63.76	62% 41-25 (66)
0xheavy888	Tomas Etcheverryavg 78¢	$627.71	$653.82	+$26.11	56% 9039-7126 (16165)
K5 k56	Tomas Etcheverryavg 77¢	$401.06	$406.26	+$7.81	57% 909-677 (1586)
HI hi774cCTR	Max Dahlinavg 18¢	$297	$305.25	+$8.25	46% 5712-6614 (12326)
VeryLucky888CTR	Max Dahlinavg 19.7¢	$1.0K	$114.48	-$7.63	58% 53839-38316 (92155)
LI LimousinCTR	Max Dahlinavg 23.9¢	$101.99	$93.94	-$10.67	46% 2839-3298 (6137)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Max Dahlinavg 20¢	$80	$74	-$6	51% 2351-2288 (4639)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Max Dahlinavg 18¢	$63	$64.75	+$1.75	48% 72230-77977 (150207)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Max Dahlinavg 20¢	$63.2	$58.46	-$4.74	45% 14907-18247 (33154)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Max Dahlinavg 20¢	$55.19	$51.05	-$4.14	57% 22812-16907 (39719)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Tomas Etcheverryavg 81¢	$46.77	$47.06	+$0.29	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
PA Pan9X<$100	Tomas Etcheverryavg 81¢	$30.78	$30.97	+$0.19	53% 28419-25695 (54114)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Max Dahlinavg 23.9¢	$18.35	$16.9	-$1.15	50% 24138-24257 (48395)
SE sentrio<$100	Tomas Etcheverryavg 81¢	$10.07	$10.13	+$0.06	51% 28849-28206 (57055)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Max Dahlinavg 21¢	$2.52	$2.46	-$0.06	47% 3608-4017 (7625)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Max Dahlinavg 23.9¢	$1.3	$1.2	-$0.08	45% 2804-3415 (6219)

prabam

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$4,261.25

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$63.76

Record

62%

41-25 (66)

0xheavy888

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$627.71

Value

$653.82

PnL

+$26.11

Record

56%

9039-7126 (16165)

k56

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$401.06

Value

$406.26

PnL

+$7.81

Record

57%

909-677 (1586)

hi774cCTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

$297

Value

$305.25

PnL

+$8.25

Record

46%

5712-6614 (12326)

VeryLucky888CTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

$1,012.08

Value

$114.48

PnL

-$7.63

Record

58%

53839-38316 (92155)

LimousinCTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

$101.99

Value

$93.94

PnL

-$10.67

Record

46%

2839-3298 (6137)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Max Dahlin

Invested

$80

Value

$74

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

2351-2288 (4639)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Max Dahlin

Invested

$63

Value

$64.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

48%

72230-77977 (150207)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Max Dahlin

Invested

$63.2

Value

$58.46

PnL

-$4.74

Record

45%

14907-18247 (33154)

NM-PCTR<$100

Max Dahlin

Invested

$55.19

Value

$51.05

PnL

-$4.14

Record

57%

22812-16907 (39719)

Eulhunter<$100

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$46.77

Value

$47.06

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

Pan9X<$100

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$30.78

Value

$30.97

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

28419-25695 (54114)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Max Dahlin

Invested

$18.35

Value

$16.9

PnL

-$1.15

Record

50%

24138-24257 (48395)

sentrio<$100

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$10.07

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0.06

Record

51%

28849-28206 (57055)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Max Dahlin

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$0.06

Record

47%

3608-4017 (7625)

VenusianCTR<$100

Max Dahlin

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.08

Record

45%

2804-3415 (6219)

Research grade

NeutralTomas Etcheverry at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Etcheverry

6 of 16 top traders (38%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Tomas Etcheverry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Tomas Etcheverry) and the top 1000 (6 on Max Dahlin) disagree here.

whaleMax Dahlin 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrMax Dahlin 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTomas Etcheverry 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Max Dahlin 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tomas Etcheverry wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.