Montevideo: Thiago Estramil vs Alvaro Guillen Meza

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Alvaro Guillen Meza (36%) · Alvaro Guillen Meza at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Thiago Estramil<1¢Alvaro Guillen Meza>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Consensus Traders

Alvaro Guillen Meza 36%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$143.99

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 99.4¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlvaro Guillen Meza at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alvaro Guillen Meza

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Thiago Estramil1%

Alvaro Guillen Meza99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alvaro Guillen Meza5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,471

Combined PnL+$133.22

Thiago Estramil9 traders

Total Value$84.6

Total Shares1,867

Combined PnL+$10.78

Alvaro Guillen Meza — 36%Thiago Estramil — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 94.8¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$135.5	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
38 38791873984189	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 97.7¢	$1.9K	$839.25	-$8.17	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
SM smithagent<$100	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 96.1¢	$88.38	$91.37	+$2.99	46% 873-1017 (1890)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Thiago Estramilavg 5.2¢	$20.8	$31	+$10.2	48% 371-403 (774)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Thiago Estramilavg 5.3¢	$13.99	$20.46	+$6.47	45% 963-1156 (2119)
PA Pan9X<$100	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 89.4¢	$47.52	$16.81	+$2.11	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Thiago Estramilavg 4.2¢	$13.66	$16.46	+$2.8	52% 200-187 (387)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Thiago Estramilavg 3.9¢	$4.1	$8.14	+$4.04	49% 629-659 (1288)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Thiago Estramilavg 3.3¢	$16.04	$3.39	-$12.65	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Alvaro Guillen Mezaavg 70¢	$2.23	$3.02	+$0.79	53% 212-190 (402)
poshposhCTR<$100	Thiago Estramilavg 3.8¢	$1.99	$2.67	+$0.68	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Thiago Estramilavg 1¢	$1.45	$1.6	+$0.14	36% 247-448 (695)
RN1CTR<$100	Thiago Estramilavg 1.3¢	$1.11	$0.76	-$0.36	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
dips.CTR<$100	Thiago Estramilavg 5.6¢	$0.95	$0.13	-$0.56	48% 1294-1381 (2675)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Invested

$2,392.87

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$135.5

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

38791873984189

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Invested

$1,921.78

Value

$839.25

PnL

-$8.17

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

smithagent<$100

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Invested

$88.38

Value

$91.37

PnL

+$2.99

Record

46%

873-1017 (1890)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Thiago Estramil

Invested

$20.8

Value

$31

PnL

+$10.2

Record

48%

371-403 (774)

lryyyCTR<$100

Thiago Estramil

Invested

$13.99

Value

$20.46

PnL

+$6.47

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

Pan9X<$100

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Invested

$47.52

Value

$16.81

PnL

+$2.11

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Thiago Estramil

Invested

$13.66

Value

$16.46

PnL

+$2.8

Record

52%

200-187 (387)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Thiago Estramil

Invested

$4.1

Value

$8.14

PnL

+$4.04

Record

49%

629-659 (1288)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Thiago Estramil

Invested

$16.04

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$12.65

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

Eulhunter<$100

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Invested

$2.23

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

212-190 (402)

poshposhCTR<$100

Thiago Estramil

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.67

PnL

+$0.68

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Thiago Estramil

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$0.14

Record

36%

247-448 (695)

RN1CTR<$100

Thiago Estramil

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.36

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

dips.CTR<$100

Thiago Estramil

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.56

Record

48%

1294-1381 (2675)

Research grade

NeutralAlvaro Guillen Meza at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Alvaro Guillen Meza

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alvaro Guillen Meza wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.