Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yanki Erel, while the market favors Masamichi Imamura (53%). 12 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Taipei: Yanki Erel vs Masamichi Imamura

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yanki Erel (86%) · Yanki Erel at 48¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 9

Yanki Erel48¢Masamichi Imamura52¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yanki Erel

Consensus Traders

Yanki Erel 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.2K

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 47.5¢

-21% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYanki Erel at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yanki Erel

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Masamichi Imamura 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yanki Erel48%

Masamichi Imamura53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yanki Erel12 traders

Total Value$21.9K

Total Shares41,959

Combined PnL$-4.2K

Masamichi Imamura2 traders

Total Value$221.22

Total Shares463

Combined PnL-$5.12

Yanki Erel — 86%Masamichi Imamura — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yanki Erel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYanki Erel 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYanki Erel 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYanki Erel 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYanki Erel 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yanki Erel 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Yanki Erelavg 59.1¢	$18.0K	$14.8K	$-3.3K	54% 57635-49887 (107522)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yanki Erelavg 65.3¢	$4.3K	$3.4K	-$957.02	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
SE sentrioCTR	Yanki Erelavg 51.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$85.26	50% 24963-24634 (49597)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yanki Erelavg 51¢	$835.31	$859.88	+$24.57	48% 1127-1228 (2355)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Yanki Erelavg 81.4¢	$793.71	$737.44	-$13.8	60% 4137-2777 (6914)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Yanki Erelavg 68.7¢	$618.09	$711.13	+$138.67	56% 1875-1457 (3332)
OM omnibus-076daa	Masamichi Imamuraavg 50.1¢	$217.34	$216.72	-$0.62	50% 19648-20016 (39664)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yanki Erelavg 62.6¢	$139.4	$151.16	+$11.76	52% 14000-12774 (26774)
└ Masamichi Imamura leg	Masamichi Imamuraavg 30.3¢	$46.51	$79.89	+$33.38
└ Yanki Erel leg	Yanki Erelavg 62.6¢	$92.9	$71.27	-$21.63
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yanki Erelavg 73.2¢	$79.8	$84.5	+$4.7	58% 43195-31436 (74631)
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100	Yanki Erelavg 69¢	$53.25	$65.59	+$12.35	58% 2764-1978 (4742)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yanki Erelavg 87¢	$91.4	$62.63	-$28.77	57% 18823-13930 (32753)
TRCMCTR<$100	Yanki Erelavg 87¢	$30.45	$29.75	-$0.7	55% 3969-3197 (7166)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yanki Erelavg 89¢	$10	$9.55	-$0.45	66% 23569-11896 (35465)
poshposh<$100	Masamichi Imamuraavg 30¢	$9	$4.5	-$4.5	58% 10953-7928 (18881)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yanki Erelavg 82¢	$1.23	$1.28	+$0.04	53% 6253-5611 (11864)

RN1CTR

Yanki Erel

Invested

$18,026.56

Value

$14.8K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

54%

57635-49887 (107522)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yanki Erel

Invested

$4,337.83

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$957.02

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

sentrioCTR

Yanki Erel

Invested

$1,289.48

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$85.26

Record

50%

24963-24634 (49597)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yanki Erel

Invested

$835.31

Value

$859.88

PnL

+$24.57

Record

48%

1127-1228 (2355)

thestingsnakeCTR

Yanki Erel

Invested

$793.71

Value

$737.44

PnL

-$13.8

Record

60%

4137-2777 (6914)

SchruteBucksCTR

Yanki Erel

Invested

$618.09

Value

$711.13

PnL

+$138.67

Record

56%

1875-1457 (3332)

omnibus-076daa

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

$217.34

Value

$216.72

PnL

-$0.62

Record

50%

19648-20016 (39664)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yanki Erel

Invested

$139.4

Value

$151.16

PnL

+$11.76

Record

52%

14000-12774 (26774)

Both legs:

Masamichi Imamura$46.5130.3¢+$33.38

Yanki Erel$92.962.6¢-$21.63

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yanki Erel

Invested

$79.8

Value

$84.5

PnL

+$4.7

Record

58%

43195-31436 (74631)

flatbarrelCTR<$100

Yanki Erel

Invested

$53.25

Value

$65.59

PnL

+$12.35

Record

58%

2764-1978 (4742)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yanki Erel

Invested

$91.4

Value

$62.63

PnL

-$28.77

Record

57%

18823-13930 (32753)

TRCMCTR<$100

Yanki Erel

Invested

$30.45

Value

$29.75

PnL

-$0.7

Record

55%

3969-3197 (7166)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yanki Erel

Invested

$10

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$0.45

Record

66%

23569-11896 (35465)

poshposh<$100

Masamichi Imamura

Invested

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

58%

10953-7928 (18881)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yanki Erel

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

6253-5611 (11864)

Research grade

NeutralYanki Erel at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yanki Erel

12 of 14 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Masamichi Imamura 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yanki Erel. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYanki Erel 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYanki Erel 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYanki Erel 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYanki Erel 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yanki Erel 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yanki Erel wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.