Brest: Moez Echargui vs Francesco Maestrelli
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Moez Echargui (55%) · Moez Echargui at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Moez Echargui
11
Moez Echargui 55%
$1.4K
$11.68
44.8¢ → 50.5¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralMoez Echargui at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Moez Echarguiavg 48.1¢ | $395.95 | $398.92 | +$2.96 | 54% 16729-14037 (30766) |
EF efntrickCTR | Francesco Maestrelliavg 50.4¢ | $360.71 | $368.69 | +$7.98 | 48% 3603-3858 (7461) |
UP UpTheBlues | Moez Echarguiavg 41.9¢ | $322.39 | $319.14 | -$3.25 | 59% 44235-30607 (74842) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Francesco Maestrelliavg 58¢ | $111.87 | $110.69 | +$1 | 58% 40367-29157 (69524) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Francesco Maestrelliavg 58¢ | $106.13 | $107.04 | +$0.91 | 56% 6835-5475 (12310) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Moez Echarguiavg 40¢ | $54.4 | $56.44 | +$2.04 | 58% 27866-20501 (48367) |
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100 | Francesco Maestrelliavg 55¢ | $9.35 | $9.95 | +$0.6 | 58% 18290-13441 (31731) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Francesco Maestrelliavg 58¢ | $5.8 | $5.85 | +$0.05 | 52% 5807-5432 (11239) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Moez Echarguiavg 41¢ | $4.13 | $4.18 | +$0.05 | 62% 13573-8398 (21971) |
 TRCM<$100 | Moez Echarguiavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.38 | -$0.02 | 56% 3890-3119 (7009) |
TH thestingsnake<$100 | Moez Echarguiavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.07 | -$0.63 | 60% 3883-2640 (6523) |
Invested
$395.95
Value
$398.92
PnL
+$2.96
Record
54%
16729-14037 (30766)
Invested
$360.71
Value
$368.69
PnL
+$7.98
Record
48%
3603-3858 (7461)
Invested
$322.39
Value
$319.14
PnL
-$3.25
Record
59%
44235-30607 (74842)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$111.87
Value
$110.69
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
40367-29157 (69524)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$106.13
Value
$107.04
PnL
+$0.91
Record
56%
6835-5475 (12310)
Invested
$54.4
Value
$56.44
PnL
+$2.04
Record
58%
27866-20501 (48367)
Invested
$9.35
Value
$9.95
PnL
+$0.6
Record
58%
18290-13441 (31731)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$5.8
Value
$5.85
PnL
+$0.05
Record
52%
5807-5432 (11239)
Invested
$4.13
Value
$4.18
PnL
+$0.05
Record
62%
13573-8398 (21971)
TRCM<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.38
PnL
-$0.02
Record
56%
3890-3119 (7009)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.07
PnL
-$0.63
Record
60%
3883-2640 (6523)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
Moez Echargui — $398.92
efntrick
CTRFrancesco Maestrelli — $368.69
UpTheBlues
Moez Echargui — $319.14
VeryLucky888
CTRFrancesco Maestrelli — $110.69
0xheavy888
CTRFrancesco Maestrelli — $107.04
LeLynxMalynx
Moez Echargui — $56.44
BillBenter2026
CTRFrancesco Maestrelli — $9.95
tradecraft
CTRFrancesco Maestrelli — $5.85
Lilybaeum
Moez Echargui — $4.18
TRCM
Moez Echargui — $2.38