Villa Maria: Ivan Dreycopp vs Fermin Tenti

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ivan Dreycopp (50%) · Ivan Dreycopp at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Ivan Dreycopp>99¢Fermin Tenti<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ivan Dreycopp

Consensus Traders

Ivan Dreycopp 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$195.31

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralIvan Dreycopp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ivan Dreycopp

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ivan Dreycopp100%

Fermin Tenti0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ivan Dreycopp4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,634

Combined PnL-$128.31

Fermin Tenti4 traders

Total Value$741.43

Total Shares3,478

Combined PnL-$67.01

Ivan Dreycopp — 50%Fermin Tenti — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Ivan Dreycoppavg 66.1¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$68.53	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Fermin Tentiavg 21.4¢	$659.42	$523.18	-$136.25	48% 1070-1175 (2245)
BI BillBenter2026	Ivan Dreycoppavg 86.9¢	$283.47	$223.07	-$60.4	58% 18786-13851 (32637)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Fermin Tentiavg 28.4¢	$242.56	$211.73	+$69.91	60% 4110-2768 (6878)
VeryLucky888<$100	Ivan Dreycoppavg 56¢	$50.91	$51.36	+$0.45	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HRTrading<$100	Ivan Dreycoppavg 94¢	$31.03	$31.19	+$0.16	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Fermin Tentiavg 50¢	$5	$4.35	-$0.65	85% 5899-1010 (6909)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Fermin Tentiavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.18	-$0.03	50% 19465-19831 (39296)

UpTheBlues

Ivan Dreycopp

Invested

$1,357.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$68.53

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Fermin Tenti

Invested

$659.42

Value

$523.18

PnL

-$136.25

Record

48%

1070-1175 (2245)

BillBenter2026

Ivan Dreycopp

Invested

$283.47

Value

$223.07

PnL

-$60.4

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

thestingsnakeCTR

Fermin Tenti

Invested

$242.56

Value

$211.73

PnL

+$69.91

Record

60%

4110-2768 (6878)

VeryLucky888<$100

Ivan Dreycopp

Invested

$50.91

Value

$51.36

PnL

+$0.45

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HRTrading<$100

Ivan Dreycopp

Invested

$31.03

Value

$31.19

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Fermin Tenti

Invested

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.65

Record

85%

5899-1010 (6909)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Fermin Tenti

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

Research grade

NeutralIvan Dreycopp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ivan Dreycopp

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ivan Dreycopp wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.