Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Daniil Ostapenkov

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Liam Draxl (56%) · Liam Draxl at 100¢ · $339K held · ends Nov 5

Liam Draxl>99¢Daniil Ostapenkov<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liam Draxl

Consensus Traders

Liam Draxl 56%

Total Value

$338.6K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiam Draxl at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liam Draxl

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liam Draxl100%

Daniil Ostapenkov0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liam Draxl10 traders

Total Value$265.1K

Total Shares334,782

Combined PnL$-42.8K

Daniil Ostapenkov8 traders

Total Value$73.5K

Total Shares343,103

Combined PnL+$46.2K

Liam Draxl — 56%Daniil Ostapenkov — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TE tenniz	Liam Draxlavg 91.4¢	$197.3K	$169.4K	$-27.9K	82% 62-14 (76)
YE yesmate	Liam Draxlavg 92.4¢	$97.0K	$82.4K	$-14.6K	52% 357-330 (687)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 7.8¢	$25.8K	$71.2K	+$45.4K	49% 671-695 (1366)
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Liam Draxlavg 99¢	$9.6K	$9.6K	+$48.23	63% 263-152 (415)
RN1CTR	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 14.5¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$684.13	54% 56057-48191 (104248)
poshposh	Liam Draxlavg 97¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$388.5	59% 9720-6710 (16430)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Liam Draxlavg 86.9¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$132.86	52% 13677-12494 (26171)
SH shiifoo	Liam Draxlavg 90.8¢	$379.52	$417.79	+$38.27	60% 3301-2214 (5515)
VeryLucky888	Liam Draxlavg 74¢	$706.35	$334.03	+$92.93	58% 41280-29927 (71207)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 18.7¢	$784.3	$105.69	+$64.31	60% 4009-2699 (6708)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 1¢	$2	$43	+$41	59% 30243-20948 (51191)
0xheavy888<$100	Liam Draxlavg 81¢	$24.3	$23.1	-$1.2	55% 6998-5615 (12613)
PA pauleta23<$100	Liam Draxlavg 83.5¢	$20	$17.97	-$2.03	67% 23218-11625 (34843)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 25¢	$13.75	$12.65	-$1.1	58% 28266-20847 (49113)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Liam Draxlavg 79¢	$7.9	$7.85	-$0.05	86% 4916-815 (5731)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 25¢	$5.43	$5	-$0.43	62% 13679-8520 (22199)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 1¢	$10.62	$0.53	-$10.09	49% 18862-19270 (38132)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Daniil Ostapenkovavg 23¢	$24.64	$0.05	-$24.59	54% 17012-14262 (31274)

tenniz

Liam Draxl

Invested

$197,267.63

Value

$169.4K

PnL

$-27.9K

Record

82%

62-14 (76)

yesmate

Liam Draxl

Invested

$96,975

Value

$82.4K

PnL

$-14.6K

Record

52%

357-330 (687)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$25,831.6

Value

$71.2K

PnL

+$45.4K

Record

49%

671-695 (1366)

01258787xy48487484545122

Liam Draxl

Invested

$9,550.17

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$48.23

Record

63%

263-152 (415)

RN1CTR

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$1,413.61

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$684.13

Record

54%

56057-48191 (104248)

poshposh

Liam Draxl

Invested

$2,036.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$388.5

Record

59%

9720-6710 (16430)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Liam Draxl

Invested

$1,368.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$132.86

Record

52%

13677-12494 (26171)

shiifoo

Liam Draxl

Invested

$379.52

Value

$417.79

PnL

+$38.27

Record

60%

3301-2214 (5515)

VeryLucky888

Liam Draxl

Invested

$706.35

Value

$334.03

PnL

+$92.93

Record

58%

41280-29927 (71207)

thestingsnakeCTR

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$784.3

Value

$105.69

PnL

+$64.31

Record

60%

4009-2699 (6708)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

Value

$43

PnL

+$41

Record

59%

30243-20948 (51191)

0xheavy888<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$24.3

Value

$23.1

PnL

-$1.2

Record

55%

6998-5615 (12613)

pauleta23<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$20

Value

$17.97

PnL

-$2.03

Record

67%

23218-11625 (34843)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$13.75

Value

$12.65

PnL

-$1.1

Record

58%

28266-20847 (49113)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$7.9

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

86%

4916-815 (5731)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$5.43

Value

PnL

-$0.43

Record

62%

13679-8520 (22199)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$10.62

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$10.09

Record

49%

18862-19270 (38132)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Daniil Ostapenkov

Invested

$24.64

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$24.59

Record

54%

17012-14262 (31274)

Research grade

NeutralLiam Draxl at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Liam Draxl

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liam Draxl wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.