Knoxville: Liam Draxl vs Petr Nesterov
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Liam Draxl (20%) · Liam Draxl at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Liam Draxl
5
Liam Draxl 20%
$1.7K
-$4.95
Research grade
NeutralLiam Draxl at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Liam Draxl. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | Liam Draxlavg 75¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$9.95 | 3% 7-200 (207) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Petr Nesterovavg 25¢ | $187.24 | $190.99 | +$3.74 | 52% 441-414 (855) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Petr Nesterovavg 22¢ | $7.56 | $8.59 | +$1.03 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Petr Nesterovavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.28 | +$0.02 | 31% 278-610 (888) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Petr Nesterovavg 21¢ | $1.05 | $1.25 | +$0.2 | 31% 373-839 (1212) |
Invested
$1,492.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$9.95
Record
3%
7-200 (207)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$187.24
Value
$190.99
PnL
+$3.74
Record
52%
441-414 (855)
Invested
$7.56
Value
$8.59
PnL
+$1.03
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.28
PnL
+$0.02
Record
31%
278-610 (888)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0.2
Record
31%
373-839 (1212)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.