Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Dominko

15 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Dominko (75%) · Sebastian Dominko at 96¢ · $125K held · ends Nov 7

Liam Draxl4¢Sebastian Dominko96¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Dominko

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Dominko 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$124.9K

Combined PnL

$20.4K

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 96¢

+64% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

15 of 20 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liam Draxl4%

Sebastian Dominko96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Dominko15 traders

Total Value$84.5K

Total Shares94,489

Combined PnL+$15.6K

Liam Draxl5 traders

Total Value$38.6K

Total Shares75,967

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Sebastian Dominko — 75%Liam Draxl — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Sebastian Dominkoavg 62.9¢	$32.2K	$39.8K	+$7.6K	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
RO robustmstCTR	Liam Draxlavg 51¢	$29.4K	$34.3K	+$4.9K	48% 107-118 (225)
RN1	Sebastian Dominkoavg 53¢	$26.2K	$33.9K	+$7.7K	54% 56713-48922 (105635)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Sebastian Dominkoavg 66.5¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$13.35	52% 13824-12612 (26436)
IV Ivan948CTR	Liam Draxlavg 32¢	$5.8K	$2.8K	+$31.26	44% 75-94 (169)
OM omnibus-076daa	Sebastian Dominkoavg 68.2¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$546.56	50% 19237-19616 (38853)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Liam Draxlavg 52.6¢	$3.6K	$1.9K	$-1.7K	48% 948-1024 (1972)
└ Sebastian Dominko leg	Sebastian Dominkoavg 56¢	$764.5	$1.2K	+$416.91
└ Liam Draxl leg	Liam Draxlavg 52.6¢	$2.9K	$732.61	$-2.1K
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Sebastian Dominkoavg 50¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$430.35	51% 1466-1410 (2876)
TH thestingsnake	Sebastian Dominkoavg 63.1¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	+$290.29	60% 4081-2750 (6831)
88MCTR	Liam Draxlavg 33¢	$682.86	$734.61	+$51.74	42% 786-1080 (1866)
ES EscobarzzzzCTR	Liam Draxlavg 11.6¢	$752.96	$679.26	-$73.7	39% 44-70 (114)
poshposh	Sebastian Dominkoavg 82.7¢	$546.41	$443.99	-$102.42	59% 10284-7273 (17557)
1L 1lovejump	Sebastian Dominkoavg 71.2¢	$1.6K	$349.5	-$52.74	53% 670-591 (1261)
TO topdogbigboi	Sebastian Dominkoavg 42.4¢	$124.58	$204.93	+$80.35	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Liam Draxlavg 43.4¢	$1.4K	$60.54	-$131.62	58% 223-164 (387)
HRTrading<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 80.2¢	$61.65	$57.15	-$4.5	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
tradecraft<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 62¢	$55.8	$56.25	+$0.45	51% 6026-5729 (11755)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 39¢	$35.74	$37.12	+$1.37	61% 13730-8604 (22334)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 40¢	$16.4	$16.61	+$0.21	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 62¢	$6.2	$4.05	-$2.15	85% 5393-940 (6333)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 48¢	$22.87	$0.69	+$3.55	56% 1857-1445 (3302)

UpTheBlues

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$32,153.82

Value

$39.8K

PnL

+$7.6K

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

robustmstCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$29,401.61

Value

$34.3K

PnL

+$4.9K

Record

48%

107-118 (225)

RN1

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$26,205.09

Value

$33.9K

PnL

+$7.7K

Record

54%

56713-48922 (105635)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$3,880.55

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$13.35

Record

52%

13824-12612 (26436)

Ivan948CTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$5,842.8

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$31.26

Record

44%

75-94 (169)

omnibus-076daa

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$1,720.8

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$546.56

Record

50%

19237-19616 (38853)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$3,616.96

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

48%

948-1024 (1972)

Both legs:

Sebastian Dominko$764.556¢+$416.91

Liam Draxl$2,852.4652.6¢$-2.1K

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$2,265

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$430.35

Record

51%

1466-1410 (2876)

thestingsnake

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$1,847.77

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$290.29

Record

60%

4081-2750 (6831)

88MCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$682.86

Value

$734.61

PnL

+$51.74

Record

42%

786-1080 (1866)

EscobarzzzzCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$752.96

Value

$679.26

PnL

-$73.7

Record

39%

44-70 (114)

poshposh

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$546.41

Value

$443.99

PnL

-$102.42

Record

59%

10284-7273 (17557)

1lovejump

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$1,633.99

Value

$349.5

PnL

-$52.74

Record

53%

670-591 (1261)

topdogbigboi

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$124.58

Value

$204.93

PnL

+$80.35

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$1,379.65

Value

$60.54

PnL

-$131.62

Record

58%

223-164 (387)

HRTrading<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$61.65

Value

$57.15

PnL

-$4.5

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

tradecraft<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$55.8

Value

$56.25

PnL

+$0.45

Record

51%

6026-5729 (11755)

Lilybaeum<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$35.74

Value

$37.12

PnL

+$1.37

Record

61%

13730-8604 (22334)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$16.4

Value

$16.61

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$6.2

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$2.15

Record

85%

5393-940 (6333)

SchruteBucks<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$22.87

Value

$0.69

PnL

+$3.55

Record

56%

1857-1445 (3302)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

15 of 20 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Dominko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.