Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Liam Draxl, while the market favors Darwin Blanch (57%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Sioux Falls: Liam Draxl vs Darwin Blanch

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Liam Draxl (53%) · Liam Draxl at 43¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 6

Liam Draxl43¢Darwin Blanch57¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liam Draxl

Consensus Traders

Liam Draxl 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 42.5¢

-9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiam Draxl at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liam Draxl

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Darwin Blanch 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liam Draxl43%

Darwin Blanch57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liam Draxl9 traders

Total Value$28.4K

Total Shares65,701

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Darwin Blanch8 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares15,265

Combined PnL+$47.95

Liam Draxl — 53%Darwin Blanch — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Liam Draxlavg 47.4¢	$14.6K	$12.2K	$-2.4K	59% 45474-31848 (77322)
RO robustmstCTR	Liam Draxlavg 41.8¢	$9.9K	$9.6K	-$314.51	48% 105-116 (221)
RN1	Darwin Blanchavg 59¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$50.81	54% 56399-48569 (104968)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Liam Draxlavg 57.9¢	$3.9K	$4.5K	+$579.16	38% 495-804 (1299)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 52.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$12.92	52% 13748-12549 (26297)
└ Darwin Blanch leg	Darwin Blanchavg 52.6¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$136.58
└ Liam Draxl leg	Liam Draxlavg 52.4¢	$544.71	$421.05	-$123.66
MR MrDouche	Darwin Blanchavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.5	82% 1688-360 (2048)
SE sentrio	Darwin Blanchavg 60¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$8.39	50% 24909-24604 (49513)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Liam Draxlavg 50.3¢	$790.18	$769.97	+$4.47	60% 4052-2733 (6785)
tradecraftCTR	Liam Draxlavg 59¢	$1,000	$711.86	-$288.13	51% 5992-5689 (11681)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Liam Draxlavg 51¢	$591.71	$585.91	-$5.8	48% 788-869 (1657)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 50.7¢	$646.18	$359.4	-$50	53% 658-580 (1238)
└ Darwin Blanch leg	Darwin Blanchavg 50.7¢	$237.79	$227.28	-$10.51
└ Liam Draxl leg	Liam Draxlavg 61.8¢	$158.65	$132.12	-$39.49
RE RebornAthena	Darwin Blanchavg 43¢	$300	$296.51	-$3.49	53% 2007-1806 (3813)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 38¢	$52.06	$51.38	-$0.69	50% 3808-3766 (7574)
poshposh<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 43¢	$39.85	$43.22	+$3.37	59% 10038-7001 (17039)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Liam Draxlavg 41¢	$32.42	$33.21	+$0.79	58% 28489-21037 (49526)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Liam Draxlavg 43¢	$20.77	$21.98	+$1.21	49% 19066-19466 (38532)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 45¢	$12.15	$15.66	+$3.51	38% 3323-5440 (8763)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Liam Draxlavg 50.3¢	$9.31	$8.79	-$0.52	53% 4191-3790 (7981)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Darwin Blanchavg 58¢	$5.8	$5.15	-$1.45	85% 5165-880 (6045)

UpTheBluesCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$14,570.7

Value

$12.2K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

59%

45474-31848 (77322)

robustmstCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$9,938.08

Value

$9.6K

PnL

-$314.51

Record

48%

105-116 (221)

RN1

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$5,995.58

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$50.81

Record

54%

56399-48569 (104968)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$3,900

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$579.16

Record

38%

495-804 (1299)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$1,583.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$12.92

Record

52%

13748-12549 (26297)

Both legs:

Darwin Blanch$1,038.8952.6¢+$136.58

Liam Draxl$544.7152.4¢-$123.66

MrDouche

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$1,225

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.5

Record

82%

1688-360 (2048)

sentrio

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$1,006.39

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.39

Record

50%

24909-24604 (49513)

thestingsnakeCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$790.18

Value

$769.97

PnL

+$4.47

Record

60%

4052-2733 (6785)

tradecraftCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$1,000

Value

$711.86

PnL

-$288.13

Record

51%

5992-5689 (11681)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Liam Draxl

Invested

$591.71

Value

$585.91

PnL

-$5.8

Record

48%

788-869 (1657)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$646.18

Value

$359.4

PnL

-$50

Record

53%

658-580 (1238)

Both legs:

Darwin Blanch$237.7950.7¢-$10.51

Liam Draxl$158.6561.8¢-$39.49

RebornAthena

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$300

Value

$296.51

PnL

-$3.49

Record

53%

2007-1806 (3813)

NatoAlfista<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$52.06

Value

$51.38

PnL

-$0.69

Record

50%

3808-3766 (7574)

poshposh<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$39.85

Value

$43.22

PnL

+$3.37

Record

59%

10038-7001 (17039)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$32.42

Value

$33.21

PnL

+$0.79

Record

58%

28489-21037 (49526)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$20.77

Value

$21.98

PnL

+$1.21

Record

49%

19066-19466 (38532)

topdogbigboi<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$12.15

Value

$15.66

PnL

+$3.51

Record

38%

3323-5440 (8763)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Liam Draxl

Invested

$9.31

Value

$8.79

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Darwin Blanch

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$1.45

Record

85%

5165-880 (6045)

Research grade

NeutralLiam Draxl at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Liam Draxl

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Darwin Blanch 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liam Draxl wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.