Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Oliveira/Rodrigues, while the market favors Drzewiecki/Matuszewski (65%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Lima (Doubles): Oliveira/Rodrigues vs Drzewiecki/Matuszewski

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oliveira/Rodrigues (88%) · Oliveira/Rodrigues at 35¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 19

Oliveira/Rodrigues35¢Drzewiecki/Matuszewski65¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Oliveira/Rodrigues

Consensus Traders

Oliveira/Rodrigues 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$4.8K

Smart Money Entry

9.6¢ → 35¢

+265% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOliveira/Rodrigues at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oliveira/Rodrigues

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Drzewiecki/Matuszewski 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oliveira/Rodrigues35%

Drzewiecki/Matuszewski65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oliveira/Rodrigues7 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares26,506

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Drzewiecki/Matuszewski1 trader

Total Value$20

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0

Oliveira/Rodrigues — 88%Drzewiecki/Matuszewski — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Oliveira/Rodrigues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDrzewiecki/Matuszewski 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOliveira/Rodrigues 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Oliveira/Rodrigues 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Oliveira/Rodriguesavg 9.6¢	$1.1K	$2.8K	+$1.7K	51% 2093-2028 (4121)
SM smithagentCTR	Oliveira/Rodriguesavg 9.5¢	$565.96	$2.1K	+$1.5K	43% 374-496 (870)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Oliveira/Rodriguesavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	55% 499-416 (915)
└ Drzewiecki/Matuszewski leg	Drzewiecki/Matuszewskiavg 50¢	$525	$787.5	+$262.5
└ Oliveira/Rodrigues leg	Oliveira/Rodriguesavg 50¢	$525	$262.5	-$262.5
SL SlickRick123CTR	Oliveira/Rodriguesavg 6.3¢	$253.77	$1.0K	+$749.97	29% 206-510 (716)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Oliveira/Rodriguesavg 13.9¢	$280.62	$665.76	+$385.13	36% 552-970 (1522)
dips.CTR	Oliveira/Rodriguesavg 9.7¢	$236.8	$611.02	+$374.22	45% 563-680 (1243)
38 38791873984189CTR	Oliveira/Rodriguesavg 13.5¢	$124.04	$229.3	+$105.26	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Drzewiecki/Matuszewskiavg 75¢	$20	$20	+$0	83% 415-84 (499)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Oliveira/Rodriguesavg 21.7¢	$6.86	$7.9	+$1.04	33% 327-665 (992)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Oliveira/Rodrigues

Invested

$1,072.24

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

51%

2093-2028 (4121)

smithagentCTR

Oliveira/Rodrigues

Invested

$565.96

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

43%

374-496 (870)

NotJumpARB<$100

Oliveira/Rodrigues

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

Both legs:

Drzewiecki/Matuszewski$52550¢+$262.5

Oliveira/Rodrigues$52550¢-$262.5

SlickRick123CTR

Oliveira/Rodrigues

Invested

$253.77

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$749.97

Record

29%

206-510 (716)

topdogbigboiCTR

Oliveira/Rodrigues

Invested

$280.62

Value

$665.76

PnL

+$385.13

Record

36%

552-970 (1522)

dips.CTR

Oliveira/Rodrigues

Invested

$236.8

Value

$611.02

PnL

+$374.22

Record

45%

563-680 (1243)

38791873984189CTR

Oliveira/Rodrigues

Invested

$124.04

Value

$229.3

PnL

+$105.26

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Drzewiecki/Matuszewski

Invested

$20

Value

$20

PnL

+$0

Record

83%

415-84 (499)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Oliveira/Rodrigues

Invested

$6.86

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$1.04

Record

33%

327-665 (992)

Research grade

NeutralOliveira/Rodrigues at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Oliveira/Rodrigues

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Drzewiecki/Matuszewski 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Oliveira/Rodrigues. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDrzewiecki/Matuszewski 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOliveira/Rodrigues 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Oliveira/Rodrigues 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oliveira/Rodrigues wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.