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Lock/LockBozemoj/PelLock/LockBozemoj/PelLock/LockBozemoj/Pel
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Bozemoj/Pel — but Lock/Lock won instead.
Monastir (Doubles): Lock/Lock vs Bozemoj/Pel
Resolved Lock/Lock. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Bozemoj/Pel. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Bozemoj/Pel 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.1K
Combined PnL
-$443.95
Smart Money Signal
Bozemoj/Pel
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Lock/Lock100%
Bozemoj/Pel0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Bozemoj/Pel3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares697
Combined PnL-$477.33
Lock/Lock2 traders
Total Value$43.72
Total Shares44
Combined PnL+$33.38
Bozemoj/Pel — 60%Lock/Lock — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJumpARB<$100 | Lock/Lockavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 54% 455-382 (837) |
| └ Lock/Lock leg | Lock/Lockavg 50¢ | $525 | $1.1K | +$525 | |
| └ Bozemoj/Pel leg | Bozemoj/Pelavg 50¢ | $525 | — | -$525 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Bozemoj/Pelavg 43.9¢ | $149.46 | — | -$149.46 | 37% 538-932 (1470) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Lock/Lockavg 42.9¢ | $22.42 | $35.72 | +$20.9 | 43% 348-470 (818) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Bozemoj/Pelavg 64.2¢ | $322.84 | — | -$322.84 | 33% 312-635 (947) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Lock/Lockavg 28¢ | $7.52 | $8 | +$12.48 | 27% 182-490 (672) |
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100 | Bozemoj/Pelavg 52¢ | $7.48 | — | -$5.03 | 45% 100-123 (223) |
NO
NotJumpARB<$100Invested
$1,050
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
455-382 (837)
Both legs:
Lock/Lock$52550¢+$525
Bozemoj/Pel$52550¢-$525
TO
topdogbigboiCTRInvested
$149.46
Value
—
PnL
-$149.46
Record
37%
538-932 (1470)
SM
smithagent<$100Invested
$22.42
Value
$35.72
PnL
+$20.9
Record
43%
348-470 (818)
0X
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTRInvested
$322.84
Value
—
PnL
-$322.84
Record
33%
312-635 (947)
SL
SlickRick123<$100Invested
$7.52
Value
$8
PnL
+$12.48
Record
27%
182-490 (672)
GL
glennyorkshireCTR<$100Invested
$7.48
Value
—
PnL
-$5.03
Record
45%
100-123 (223)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9127d763...f30d7f
Slug
atp-doubles-lockloc-bozepel-2026-11-12