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Bass/DuncanKadhe/WangBass/DuncanBass/DuncanBass/DuncanBass/Duncan
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Bass/Duncan — but Kadhe/Wang won instead.
Matsuyama (Doubles): Kadhe/Wang vs Bass/Duncan
Resolved Kadhe/Wang. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Bass/Duncan. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Bass/Duncan 80%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$1.5K
Combined PnL
-$251.82
Smart Money Signal
Bass/Duncan
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Kadhe/Wang100%
Bass/Duncan0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Kadhe/Wang1 trader
Total Value$495.81
Total Shares496
Combined PnL+$136.56
Bass/Duncan4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,972
Combined PnL-$388.38
Kadhe/Wang — 20%Bass/Duncan — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotJumpARB<$100 | Bass/Duncanavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 55% 367-301 (668) |
| └ Kadhe/Wang leg | Kadhe/Wangavg 50¢ | $525 | $1.1K | +$525 | |
| └ Bass/Duncan leg | Bass/Duncanavg 50¢ | $525 | — | -$525 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846 | Kadhe/Wangavg 72.5¢ | $359.25 | $495.81 | +$136.56 | 31% 242-544 (786) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Bass/Duncanavg 27.5¢ | $365.23 | — | -$365.23 | 52% 1914-1760 (3674) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Bass/Duncanavg 24.7¢ | $77.01 | — | -$14.01 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Bass/Duncanavg 26.8¢ | $8.64 | — | -$8.64 | 42% 282-393 (675) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Bass/Duncanavg 0.1¢ | $0.5 | — | -$0.5 | 3% 5-176 (181) |
NO
NotJumpARB<$100Invested
$1,050
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
367-301 (668)
Both legs:
Kadhe/Wang$52550¢+$525
Bass/Duncan$52550¢-$525
0X
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846Invested
$359.25
Value
$495.81
PnL
+$136.56
Record
31%
242-544 (786)
KE
keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTRInvested
$365.23
Value
—
PnL
-$365.23
Record
52%
1914-1760 (3674)
38
38791873984189CTR<$100Invested
$77.01
Value
—
PnL
-$14.01
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
SM
smithagentCTR<$100Invested
$8.64
Value
—
PnL
-$8.64
Record
42%
282-393 (675)
SP
SpringlyFawlCTR<$100Invested
$0.5
Value
—
PnL
-$0.5
Record
3%
5-176 (181)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x740eef52...2ffaac
Slug
atp-doubles-kadhwan-bassdun-2026-11-11