Metz: Matthew William Donald vs Martin Krumich

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Martin Krumich (61%) · Martin Krumich at 65¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 22

Matthew William Donald36¢Martin Krumich64¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Martin Krumich

Consensus Traders

Martin Krumich 61%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 64.5¢

+6% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralMartin Krumich at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Krumich

11 of 18 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Matthew William Donald36%

Martin Krumich65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Martin Krumich11 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares15,537

Combined PnL-$975.89

Matthew William Donald7 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares15,273

Combined PnL-$172.36

Martin Krumich — 61%Matthew William Donald — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Martin Krumichavg 57.5¢	$6.6K	$5.5K	$-1.0K	11% 28-223 (251)
RN1CTR	Matthew William Donaldavg 42.5¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$0	54% 5979-5052 (11031)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 46.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$3.5	50% 1088-1092 (2180)
└ Matthew William Donald leg	Matthew William Donaldavg 46.8¢	$819	$743.75	-$75.25
└ Martin Krumich leg	Martin Krumichavg 50¢	$525	$603.75	+$78.75
CA CandleHammerDrums	Martin Krumichavg 71¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$1.2	49% 616-642 (1258)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Matthew William Donaldavg 29¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$87.25	50% 2819-2838 (5657)
38 38791873984189	Martin Krumichavg 69.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$22.19	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
TH thirdt1me	Martin Krumichavg 68.7¢	$457.98	$486.93	+$28.95	48% 367-395 (762)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 39.1¢	$403.03	$389	+$24.02	46% 607-722 (1329)
└ Matthew William Donald leg	Matthew William Donaldavg 39.1¢	$208.12	$257.9	+$49.78
└ Martin Krumich leg	Martin Krumichavg 61.3¢	$156.03	$131.09	-$25.76
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Matthew William Donaldavg 38.8¢	$240.6	$167.4	-$73.2	35% 239-446 (685)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Martin Krumichavg 71¢	$123.82	$114.22	-$9.6	56% 4148-3245 (7393)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Matthew William Donaldavg 43¢	$111.8	$110.5	-$1.3	48% 468-503 (971)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 39¢	$72.26	$74.11	+$1.85	56% 636-504 (1140)
HY hydra1248<$100	Martin Krumichavg 61¢	$35.8	$35.21	-$0.59	75% 229-77 (306)
SE sentrio<$100	Martin Krumichavg 71¢	$34.36	$34.36	-$0	41% 1163-1648 (2811)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Martin Krumichavg 47.7¢	$21.44	$31.3	+$9.86	45% 449-545 (994)
BA babybells<$100	Martin Krumichavg 50¢	$22.5	$22.73	+$0.23	34% 259-513 (772)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 49.9¢	$32.82	$20.05	-$12.77	42% 549-751 (1300)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Matthew William Donaldavg 39¢	$12.09	$12.4	+$0.31	50% 2155-2179 (4334)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Martin Krumichavg 57¢	$10	$10.52	+$0.53	48% 216-234 (450)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Martin Krumichavg 52¢	$2.17	$2.19	+$0.02	83% 939-195 (1134)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Martin Krumich

Invested

$6,556.28

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

11%

28-223 (251)

RN1CTR

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$4,142.9

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

5979-5052 (11031)

NotJumpARB<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$1,344

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$3.5

Record

50%

1088-1092 (2180)

Both legs:

Matthew William Donald$81946.8¢-$75.25

Martin Krumich$52550¢+$78.75

CandleHammerDrums

Martin Krumich

Invested

$1,194.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$1.2

Record

49%

616-642 (1258)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$1,265.15

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$87.25

Record

50%

2819-2838 (5657)

38791873984189

Martin Krumich

Invested

$1,106.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$22.19

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

thirdt1me

Martin Krumich

Invested

$457.98

Value

$486.93

PnL

+$28.95

Record

48%

367-395 (762)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$403.03

Value

$389

PnL

+$24.02

Record

46%

607-722 (1329)

Both legs:

Matthew William Donald$208.1239.1¢+$49.78

Martin Krumich$156.0361.3¢-$25.76

thestingsnakeCTR

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$240.6

Value

$167.4

PnL

-$73.2

Record

35%

239-446 (685)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Martin Krumich

Invested

$123.82

Value

$114.22

PnL

-$9.6

Record

56%

4148-3245 (7393)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$111.8

Value

$110.5

PnL

-$1.3

Record

48%

468-503 (971)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$72.26

Value

$74.11

PnL

+$1.85

Record

56%

636-504 (1140)

hydra1248<$100

Martin Krumich

Invested

$35.8

Value

$35.21

PnL

-$0.59

Record

75%

229-77 (306)

sentrio<$100

Martin Krumich

Invested

$34.36

Value

$34.36

PnL

-$0

Record

41%

1163-1648 (2811)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Martin Krumich

Invested

$21.44

Value

$31.3

PnL

+$9.86

Record

45%

449-545 (994)

babybells<$100

Martin Krumich

Invested

$22.5

Value

$22.73

PnL

+$0.23

Record

34%

259-513 (772)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$32.82

Value

$20.05

PnL

-$12.77

Record

42%

549-751 (1300)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Matthew William Donald

Invested

$12.09

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$0.31

Record

50%

2155-2179 (4334)

glennyorkshire<$100

Martin Krumich

Invested

$10

Value

$10.52

PnL

+$0.53

Record

48%

216-234 (450)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Martin Krumich

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.02

Record

83%

939-195 (1134)

Research grade

NeutralMartin Krumich at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Krumich

11 of 18 top traders (61%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Martin Krumich wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.