Sioux Falls: Sebastian Dominko vs Valentin Royer

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Dominko (82%) · Sebastian Dominko at 75¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5

Sebastian Dominko75¢Valentin Royer25¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Dominko

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Dominko 82%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$722.13

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 74.5¢

+32% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sebastian Dominko75%

Valentin Royer26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Dominko9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,434

Combined PnL-$725.21

Valentin Royer2 traders

Total Value$51.12

Total Shares72

Combined PnL+$3.08

Sebastian Dominko — 82%Valentin Royer — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Sebastian Dominkoavg 73.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$48.63	54% 17010-14258 (31268)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Sebastian Dominkoavg 58.5¢	$642.98	$805.43	+$162.45	52% 13670-12491 (26161)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Sebastian Dominkoavg 36¢	$872.39	$702.76	-$169.63	49% 671-693 (1364)
RN1	Sebastian Dominkoavg 71.9¢	$920.59	$371.37	-$549.21	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
TH thestingsnake	Sebastian Dominkoavg 38.7¢	$217.26	$162.6	-$54.65	60% 4006-2695 (6701)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Sebastian Dominkoavg 73¢	$255.5	$101.5	-$154	51% 1361-1305 (2666)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Valentin Royeravg 67.2¢	$41.64	$44.02	+$2.38	58% 18510-13598 (32108)
HRTrading<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 46¢	$13.57	$8.56	-$5.02	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Valentin Royeravg 64¢	$6.4	$7.1	+$0.7	68% 457-217 (674)
TRCM<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 55¢	$7.7	$4.06	-$3.64	55% 3927-3164 (7091)
tradecraft<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.73	-$0.13	51% 5930-5617 (11547)

HomeRunHazard

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$1,363.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$48.63

Record

54%

17010-14258 (31268)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$642.98

Value

$805.43

PnL

+$162.45

Record

52%

13670-12491 (26161)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$872.39

Value

$702.76

PnL

-$169.63

Record

49%

671-693 (1364)

RN1

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$920.59

Value

$371.37

PnL

-$549.21

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

thestingsnake

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$217.26

Value

$162.6

PnL

-$54.65

Record

60%

4006-2695 (6701)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$255.5

Value

$101.5

PnL

-$154

Record

51%

1361-1305 (2666)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Valentin Royer

Invested

$41.64

Value

$44.02

PnL

+$2.38

Record

58%

18510-13598 (32108)

HRTrading<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$13.57

Value

$8.56

PnL

-$5.02

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Valentin Royer

Invested

$6.4

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$0.7

Record

68%

457-217 (674)

TRCM<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$7.7

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$3.64

Record

55%

3927-3164 (7091)

tradecraft<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

5930-5617 (11547)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Dominko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.