Sioux Falls: Sebastian Dominko vs Karl Poling

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Dominko (71%) · Sebastian Dominko at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3

Sebastian Dominko>99¢Karl Poling<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Dominko

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Dominko 71%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

$161.36

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sebastian Dominko100%

Karl Poling0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Dominko5 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,592

Combined PnL+$165.45

Karl Poling2 traders

Total Value$143.88

Total Shares443

Combined PnL-$4.09

Sebastian Dominko — 71%Karl Poling — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Sebastian Dominkoavg 90.6¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$141.54	54% 16758-14063 (30821)
TH thestingsnake	Sebastian Dominkoavg 90.9¢	$1.0K	$977.56	+$24.8	60% 3930-2656 (6586)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Karl Polingavg 33.5¢	$144.03	$139.75	-$4.28	59% 44348-30735 (75083)
HRTrading<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 91¢	$42.41	$43.22	-$0.5	54% 2678-2303 (4981)
EF efntrick<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 92¢	$15.15	$15	-$0.15	48% 3634-3892 (7526)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Sebastian Dominkoavg 69¢	$11.12	$10.88	-$0.24	58% 18325-13460 (31785)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Karl Polingavg 31¢	$3.94	$4.13	+$0.19	62% 13587-8427 (22014)

HomeRunHazard

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$6,002.55

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$141.54

Record

54%

16758-14063 (30821)

thestingsnake

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$1,008.16

Value

$977.56

PnL

+$24.8

Record

60%

3930-2656 (6586)

UpTheBluesCTR

Karl Poling

Invested

$144.03

Value

$139.75

PnL

-$4.28

Record

59%

44348-30735 (75083)

HRTrading<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$42.41

Value

$43.22

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

2678-2303 (4981)

efntrick<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$15.15

Value

$15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

48%

3634-3892 (7526)

BillBenter2026<$100

Sebastian Dominko

Invested

$11.12

Value

$10.88

PnL

-$0.24

Record

58%

18325-13460 (31785)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Karl Poling

Invested

$3.94

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.19

Record

62%

13587-8427 (22014)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Dominko at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Dominko

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Dominko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.