Rolex Paris Masters: Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Novak Djokovic (50%) · Novak Djokovic at 67¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Novak Djokovic
6
Novak Djokovic 50%
$6.6K
-$20.64
67¢ → 66.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNovak Djokovic at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Novak Djokovic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA madkkee | Novak Djokovicavg 67¢ | $5.4K | $5.3K | -$40.1 | 66% 1054-534 (1588) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Valentin Vacherotavg 33¢ | $1.4K | $1.0K | +$15.92 | 58% 43595-31708 (75303) |
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3CTR | Valentin Vacherotavg 33¢ | $192.7 | $195.67 | +$2.97 | 45% 404-499 (903) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Novak Djokovicavg 66¢ | $69.03 | $69.55 | +$0.52 | 47% 12988-14555 (27543) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Valentin Vacherotavg 33¢ | $8.91 | $9.05 | +$0.14 | 49% 3236-3320 (6556) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Novak Djokovicavg 67.5¢ | $10 | $6.65 | -$0.1 | 52% 7637-6912 (14549) |
Invested
$5,377
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$40.1
Record
66%
1054-534 (1588)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,421.03
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$15.92
Record
58%
43595-31708 (75303)
Invested
$192.7
Value
$195.67
PnL
+$2.97
Record
45%
404-499 (903)
Invested
$69.03
Value
$69.55
PnL
+$0.52
Record
47%
12988-14555 (27543)
Invested
$8.91
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
3236-3320 (6556)
Invested
$10
Value
$6.65
PnL
-$0.1
Record
52%
7637-6912 (14549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.