Swiss Indoors Basel: Novak Djokovic vs Jan-Lennard Struff
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Novak Djokovic (25%) · Novak Djokovic at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
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Neutral
Novak Djokovic
4
Novak Djokovic 25%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$6.97
Research grade
NeutralNovak Djokovic at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Novak Djokovicavg 76¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$8.02 | 73% 3571-1312 (4883) |
5C 0x5cfe...0593CTR | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 24¢ | $383.9 | $391.9 | +$8 | 17% 26-131 (157) |
HI hi774cCTR | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 24¢ | $229.71 | $234.49 | +$4.79 | 52% 4692-4410 (9102) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 24¢ | $105.98 | $108.19 | +$2.21 | 62% 13673-8506 (22179) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 23¢ | $770.47 | $76.34 | +$12.16 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
| └ Jan-Lennard Struff leg | Jan-Lennard Struffavg 23¢ | $40.63 | $43.28 | +$2.65 | |
| └ Novak Djokovic leg | Novak Djokovicavg 75¢ | $32.84 | $33.05 | +$9.51 |
Invested
$1,219.8
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$8.02
Record
73%
3571-1312 (4883)
Invested
$383.9
Value
$391.9
PnL
+$8
Record
17%
26-131 (157)
Invested
$229.71
Value
$234.49
PnL
+$4.79
Record
52%
4692-4410 (9102)
Invested
$105.98
Value
$108.19
PnL
+$2.21
Record
62%
13673-8506 (22179)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$770.47
Value
$76.34
PnL
+$12.16
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.