Brest: Laslo Djere vs Stefano Travaglia

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Stefano Travaglia (50%) · Stefano Travaglia at 91¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 5

Laslo Djere10¢Stefano Travaglia90¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Stefano Travaglia

Consensus Traders

Stefano Travaglia 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 90.5¢

+62% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralStefano Travaglia at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Stefano Travaglia

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Laslo Djere10%

Stefano Travaglia91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Stefano Travaglia4 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares11,815

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Laslo Djere4 traders

Total Value$284.15

Total Shares441

Combined PnL+$18.6

Stefano Travaglia — 50%Laslo Djere — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Stefano Travagliaavg 56¢	$6.6K	$9.4K	+$2.8K	54% 17010-14258 (31268)
TH thestingsnake	Stefano Travagliaavg 55.9¢	$676.25	$682.06	+$14.28	60% 4006-2695 (6701)
tradecraftCTR	Laslo Djereavg 60¢	$225	$243.75	+$18.75	51% 5930-5617 (11547)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 49.1¢	$274.69	$169.07	-$105.61	52% 13670-12491 (26161)
└ Stefano Travaglia leg	Stefano Travagliaavg 57.2¢	$68.18	$99.62	+$31.44
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 49.1¢	$206.5	$69.45	-$137.05
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 73¢	$147.03	$51.94	-$95.1	58% 18510-13598 (32108)
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 73¢	$122.67	$27.72	-$94.95
└ Stefano Travaglia leg	Stefano Travagliaavg 84¢	$24.36	$24.22	-$0.14
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 72¢	$24.89	$20.05	-$4.84	55% 6996-5613 (12609)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 45.1¢	$9.6	$13.85	+$4.25	67% 23216-11620 (34836)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 60.6¢	$6.06	$6.5	+$0.44	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
TRCM<$100	Stefano Travagliaavg 45.3¢	$6.8	$5.25	-$1.55	55% 3927-3164 (7091)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Stefano Travagliaavg 57¢	$2.85	$1.75	-$1.1	68% 457-217 (674)

HomeRunHazard

Stefano Travaglia

Invested

$6,589.74

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

54%

17010-14258 (31268)

thestingsnake

Stefano Travaglia

Invested

$676.25

Value

$682.06

PnL

+$14.28

Record

60%

4006-2695 (6701)

tradecraftCTR

Laslo Djere

Invested

$225

Value

$243.75

PnL

+$18.75

Record

51%

5930-5617 (11547)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$274.69

Value

$169.07

PnL

-$105.61

Record

52%

13670-12491 (26161)

Both legs:

Stefano Travaglia$68.1857.2¢+$31.44

Laslo Djere$206.549.1¢-$137.05

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$147.03

Value

$51.94

PnL

-$95.1

Record

58%

18510-13598 (32108)

Both legs:

Laslo Djere$122.6773¢-$94.95

Stefano Travaglia$24.3684¢-$0.14

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$24.89

Value

$20.05

PnL

-$4.84

Record

55%

6996-5613 (12609)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$9.6

Value

$13.85

PnL

+$4.25

Record

67%

23216-11620 (34836)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$6.06

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.44

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

TRCM<$100

Stefano Travaglia

Invested

$6.8

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$1.55

Record

55%

3927-3164 (7091)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Stefano Travaglia

Invested

$2.85

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$1.1

Record

68%

457-217 (674)

Research grade

NeutralStefano Travaglia at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Stefano Travaglia

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Stefano Travaglia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.