Villa Maria: Felipe de Dios vs Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Joao Victor Couto Loureiro (71%) · Joao Victor Couto Loureiro at 100¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro
7
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro 71%
$7.5K
$449.51
92¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralJoao Victor Couto Loureiro at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Joao Victor Couto Loureiroavg 92.2¢ | $5.9K | $6.3K | +$485.92 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
TH thestingsnake | Joao Victor Couto Loureiroavg 90.7¢ | $730.71 | $728.33 | -$0.47 | 60% 4110-2768 (6878) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Felipe de Diosavg 11¢ | $300.84 | $287.17 | -$13.67 | 48% 1070-1175 (2245) |
 HRTrading | Joao Victor Couto Loureiroavg 90¢ | $138.34 | $138.16 | -$0.18 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiroavg 82¢ | $16.4 | $16.2 | -$0.2 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Joao Victor Couto Loureiroavg 82¢ | $8.15 | $8.06 | -$0.1 | 55% 7319-5884 (13203) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Felipe de Diosavg 8¢ | $23.03 | $1.25 | -$21.78 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
Invested
$5,863.46
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$485.92
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$730.71
Value
$728.33
PnL
-$0.47
Record
60%
4110-2768 (6878)
Invested
$300.84
Value
$287.17
PnL
-$13.67
Record
48%
1070-1175 (2245)
HRTradingInvested
$138.34
Value
$138.16
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$16.4
Value
$16.2
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$8.15
Value
$8.06
PnL
-$0.1
Record
55%
7319-5884 (13203)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$23.03
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$21.78
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro — $6.3K
thestingsnake
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro — $728.33
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTRFelipe de Dios — $287.17
HRTrading
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro — $138.16
VeryLucky888
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro — $16.2
0xheavy888
Joao Victor Couto Loureiro — $8.06
RN1
CTRFelipe de Dios — $1.25