Sioux Falls: Dylan Dietrich vs J.J. Wolf

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Dylan Dietrich (88%) · Dylan Dietrich at 100¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 6

Dylan Dietrich>99¢J.J. Wolf<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dylan Dietrich

Consensus Traders

Dylan Dietrich 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralDylan Dietrich at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dylan Dietrich

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dylan Dietrich100%

J.J. Wolf0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dylan Dietrich15 traders

Total Value$24.0K

Total Shares31,361

Combined PnL$-1.2K

J.J. Wolf2 traders

Total Value$729.63

Total Shares1,979

Combined PnL+$72.77

Dylan Dietrich — 88%J.J. Wolf — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Dylan Dietrich. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDylan Dietrich 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpDylan Dietrich 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDylan Dietrich 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDylan Dietrich 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Dylan Dietrich 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Dylan Dietrichavg 86.7¢	$8.3K	$9.1K	+$859.83	59% 45382-31736 (77118)
RN1	Dylan Dietrichavg 76.9¢	$11.5K	$9.1K	$-2.4K	54% 56331-48482 (104813)
TH thestingsnake	Dylan Dietrichavg 91.3¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	+$117.46	60% 4042-2728 (6770)
38 38791873984189	Dylan Dietrichavg 74.7¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$113.42	46% 8006-9466 (17472)
VeryLucky888	Dylan Dietrichavg 62¢	$1.5K	$878.14	-$4.17	58% 41515-30150 (71665)
13 13126052CTR	J.J. Wolfavg 34.9¢	$650.85	$726.56	+$75.71	50% 87-87 (174)
RE RebornAthena	Dylan Dietrichavg 61.6¢	$625.15	$619.39	-$5.76	53% 2004-1801 (3805)
PA Paul973973	Dylan Dietrichavg 96.3¢	$491.88	$497.21	+$5.32	89% 911-116 (1027)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Dylan Dietrichavg 61¢	$375	$375.15	+$0.15	58% 219-156 (375)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Dylan Dietrichavg 67.1¢	$248.1	$345.95	+$97.85	51% 1405-1351 (2756)
OM omnibus-076daa	Dylan Dietrichavg 82.2¢	$226.96	$222.22	-$4.74	49% 19009-19414 (38423)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 70.1¢	$220.8	$198.37	-$22.43	52% 13732-12533 (26265)
└ Dylan Dietrich leg	Dylan Dietrichavg 70.1¢	$172.88	$150.45	-$22.43
└ J.J. Wolf leg	J.J. Wolfavg 39¢	$47.92	$47.92	+$0
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 89.2¢	$606.85	$93.18	+$33.39	53% 655-576 (1231)
└ Dylan Dietrich leg	Dylan Dietrichavg 89.2¢	$54.75	$57.78	+$15.59
└ J.J. Wolf leg	J.J. Wolfavg 2.9¢	$17.6	$35.4	+$17.8
BI BillBenter2026	Dylan Dietrichavg 79.9¢	$121.62	$92.89	-$28.73	58% 18586-13652 (32238)
HRTrading<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 95.3¢	$22.21	$20.02	-$2.19	52% 4016-3659 (7675)
TRCM<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 79¢	$19.74	$15.24	-$4.5	55% 3941-3177 (7118)
PA pauleta23<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 87¢	$8.49	$5.95	-$2.54	67% 23277-11683 (34960)
0xheavy888<$100	Dylan Dietrichavg 59¢	$5.47	$5.61	+$0.14	55% 7059-5661 (12720)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	J.J. Wolfavg 5.2¢	$6.02	$3.07	-$2.95	38% 3213-5245 (8458)

UpTheBlues

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$8,252.55

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$859.83

Record

59%

45382-31736 (77118)

RN1

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$11,464.03

Value

$9.1K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

54%

56331-48482 (104813)

thestingsnake

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$1,716.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$117.46

Record

60%

4042-2728 (6770)

38791873984189

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$1,336.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$113.42

Record

46%

8006-9466 (17472)

VeryLucky888

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$1,526.42

Value

$878.14

PnL

-$4.17

Record

58%

41515-30150 (71665)

13126052CTR

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$650.85

Value

$726.56

PnL

+$75.71

Record

50%

87-87 (174)

RebornAthena

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$625.15

Value

$619.39

PnL

-$5.76

Record

53%

2004-1801 (3805)

Paul973973

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$491.88

Value

$497.21

PnL

+$5.32

Record

89%

911-116 (1027)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$375

Value

$375.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

219-156 (375)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$248.1

Value

$345.95

PnL

+$97.85

Record

51%

1405-1351 (2756)

omnibus-076daa

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$226.96

Value

$222.22

PnL

-$4.74

Record

49%

19009-19414 (38423)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$220.8

Value

$198.37

PnL

-$22.43

Record

52%

13732-12533 (26265)

Both legs:

Dylan Dietrich$172.8870.1¢-$22.43

J.J. Wolf$47.9239¢+$0

1lovejumpARB<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$606.85

Value

$93.18

PnL

+$33.39

Record

53%

655-576 (1231)

Both legs:

Dylan Dietrich$54.7589.2¢+$15.59

J.J. Wolf$17.62.9¢+$17.8

BillBenter2026

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$121.62

Value

$92.89

PnL

-$28.73

Record

58%

18586-13652 (32238)

HRTrading<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$22.21

Value

$20.02

PnL

-$2.19

Record

52%

4016-3659 (7675)

TRCM<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$19.74

Value

$15.24

PnL

-$4.5

Record

55%

3941-3177 (7118)

pauleta23<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$8.49

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$2.54

Record

67%

23277-11683 (34960)

0xheavy888<$100

Dylan Dietrich

Invested

$5.47

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$0.14

Record

55%

7059-5661 (12720)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

J.J. Wolf

Invested

$6.02

Value

$3.07

PnL

-$2.95

Record

38%

3213-5245 (8458)

Research grade

NeutralDylan Dietrich at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Dylan Dietrich

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Dylan Dietrich. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDylan Dietrich 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpDylan Dietrich 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrDylan Dietrich 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedDylan Dietrich 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Dylan Dietrich 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dylan Dietrich wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.