Taranto: Manas Dhamne vs Loann Massard

3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Loann Massard (100%) · Loann Massard at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 8

Manas Dhamne48¢Loann Massard52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Loann Massard

Consensus Traders

Loann Massard 100%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$77.72

Smart Money Entry

42.6¢ → 52.5¢

+23% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLoann Massard at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Loann Massard

3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Manas Dhamne48%

Loann Massard53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Loann Massard3 traders

Total Value$631.71

Total Shares1,260

Combined PnL+$77.72

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Loann Massardavg 38.1¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	+$126.06	60% 4095-2761 (6856)
└ Manas Dhamne leg	Manas Dhamneavg 54¢	$683.56	$772.38	+$102.29
└ Loann Massard leg	Loann Massardavg 38.1¢	$706.95	$723.97	+$23.77
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Manas Dhamneavg 39¢	$649.51	$1.4K	+$544.46	48% 1054-1158 (2212)
└ Loann Massard leg	Loann Massardavg 16¢	$275.6	$1.1K	+$568.43
└ Manas Dhamne leg	Manas Dhamneavg 39¢	$373.91	$349.94	-$23.97
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Manas Dhamneavg 65.8¢	$778.62	$497.22	-$281.41	52% 13920-12693 (26613)
└ Manas Dhamne leg	Manas Dhamneavg 65.8¢	$670.96	$382.27	-$288.69
└ Loann Massard leg	Loann Massardavg 58.5¢	$107.66	$114.94	+$7.28
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Loann Massardavg 56.6¢	$324.2	$364.04	+$39.84	59% 30657-21368 (52025)
RN1	Loann Massardavg 31.3¢	$150.01	$186.86	+$36.85	54% 57130-49397 (106527)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Loann Massardavg 30¢	$62.17	$80.82	+$1.04	57% 29212-21600 (50812)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Loann Massard

Invested

$1,664.55

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$126.06

Record

60%

4095-2761 (6856)

Both legs:

Manas Dhamne$683.5654¢+$102.29

Loann Massard$706.9538.1¢+$23.77

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Manas Dhamne

Invested

$649.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$544.46

Record

48%

1054-1158 (2212)

Both legs:

Loann Massard$275.616¢+$568.43

Manas Dhamne$373.9139¢-$23.97

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Manas Dhamne

Invested

$778.62

Value

$497.22

PnL

-$281.41

Record

52%

13920-12693 (26613)

Both legs:

Manas Dhamne$670.9665.8¢-$288.69

Loann Massard$107.6658.5¢+$7.28

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Loann Massard

Invested

$324.2

Value

$364.04

PnL

+$39.84

Record

59%

30657-21368 (52025)

RN1

Loann Massard

Invested

$150.01

Value

$186.86

PnL

+$36.85

Record

54%

57130-49397 (106527)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Loann Massard

Invested

$62.17

Value

$80.82

PnL

+$1.04

Record

57%

29212-21600 (50812)

Research grade

NeutralLoann Massard at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Loann Massard

3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Loann Massard wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.