Ningbo: Yaroslav Demin vs Harold Mayot

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yaroslav Demin (23%) · Yaroslav Demin at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6

Yaroslav Demin79¢Harold Mayot21¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yaroslav Demin

Consensus Traders

Yaroslav Demin 23%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$269.36

Smart Money Entry

59.3¢ → 79¢

+33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYaroslav Demin at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yaroslav Demin

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yaroslav Demin79%

Harold Mayot21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yaroslav Demin3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,811

Combined PnL+$432.59

Harold Mayot10 traders

Total Value$645.31

Total Shares1,807

Combined PnL-$163.23

Yaroslav Demin — 23%Harold Mayot — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Yaroslav Deminavg 52.5¢	$2.2K	$1.5K	+$302.28	46% 7787-9202 (16989)
PA pauleta23	Yaroslav Deminavg 75.2¢	$466.19	$489.7	+$23.51	67% 23249-11652 (34901)
FA Favorite-Cave-Muscat	Yaroslav Deminavg 61.2¢	$1.2K	$438.22	+$106.8	68% 320-152 (472)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Harold Mayotavg 36.3¢	$557.84	$231.03	-$60.7	60% 4029-2714 (6743)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 60.1¢	$162.79	$160.18	-$2.61	52% 13701-12510 (26211)
└ Yaroslav Demin leg	Yaroslav Deminavg 60.1¢	$120.36	$127.22	+$6.87
└ Harold Mayot leg	Harold Mayotavg 47¢	$42.43	$32.95	-$9.48
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Harold Mayotavg 40.7¢	$100.89	$95.52	-$5.37	50% 3780-3748 (7528)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Harold Mayotavg 47.8¢	$97.41	$78.54	-$18.87	55% 5686-4726 (10412)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Harold Mayotavg 74¢	$80.48	$78.31	-$2.18	59% 30333-21031 (51364)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Harold Mayotavg 64.7¢	$90.61	$70	-$20.61	58% 18561-13624 (32185)
poshposhCTR<$100	Harold Mayotavg 56¢	$36.63	$39.25	+$2.62	59% 9826-6844 (16670)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Harold Mayotavg 44.1¢	$51.2	$24.36	-$26.84	39% 3126-4927 (8053)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Harold Mayotavg 75¢	$16.26	$15.61	-$0.65	58% 41434-30051 (71485)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Harold Mayotavg 64¢	$12.8	$7.2	+$0.6	86% 4989-844 (5833)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Harold Mayotavg 31¢	$192.96	$5.49	-$31.23	56% 1835-1425 (3260)

38791873984189

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$2,202.25

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$302.28

Record

46%

7787-9202 (16989)

pauleta23

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$466.19

Value

$489.7

PnL

+$23.51

Record

67%

23249-11652 (34901)

Favorite-Cave-Muscat

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$1,198.25

Value

$438.22

PnL

+$106.8

Record

68%

320-152 (472)

thestingsnakeCTR

Harold Mayot

Invested

$557.84

Value

$231.03

PnL

-$60.7

Record

60%

4029-2714 (6743)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$162.79

Value

$160.18

PnL

-$2.61

Record

52%

13701-12510 (26211)

Both legs:

Yaroslav Demin$120.3660.1¢+$6.87

Harold Mayot$42.4347¢-$9.48

NatoAlfistaCTR

Harold Mayot

Invested

$100.89

Value

$95.52

PnL

-$5.37

Record

50%

3780-3748 (7528)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$97.41

Value

$78.54

PnL

-$18.87

Record

55%

5686-4726 (10412)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$80.48

Value

$78.31

PnL

-$2.18

Record

59%

30333-21031 (51364)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$90.61

Value

$70

PnL

-$20.61

Record

58%

18561-13624 (32185)

poshposhCTR<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$36.63

Value

$39.25

PnL

+$2.62

Record

59%

9826-6844 (16670)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$51.2

Value

$24.36

PnL

-$26.84

Record

39%

3126-4927 (8053)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$16.26

Value

$15.61

PnL

-$0.65

Record

58%

41434-30051 (71485)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Harold Mayot

Invested

$12.8

Value

$7.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

86%

4989-844 (5833)

SchruteBucksCTR

Harold Mayot

Invested

$192.96

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$31.23

Record

56%

1835-1425 (3260)

Research grade

NeutralYaroslav Demin at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yaroslav Demin

3 of 13 top traders (23%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yaroslav Demin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.