Ningbo: Yaroslav Demin vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yaroslav Demin (44%) · Yaroslav Demin at 70¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 7

Yaroslav Demin70¢Yu-Hsiou Hsu30¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yaroslav Demin

Consensus Traders

Yaroslav Demin 44%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

-$16.05

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 69.5¢

+46% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYaroslav Demin at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yaroslav Demin

7 of 16 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yaroslav Demin70%

Yu-Hsiou Hsu31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yaroslav Demin7 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,725

Combined PnL+$206.45

Yu-Hsiou Hsu9 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,878

Combined PnL-$222.49

Yaroslav Demin — 44%Yu-Hsiou Hsu — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 37.7¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$86.41	59% 45754-32097 (77851)
└ Yaroslav Demin leg	Yaroslav Deminavg 56.7¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$522.71
└ Yu-Hsiou Hsu leg	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 37.7¢	$3.2K	$2.6K	-$609.12
IV Ivan948	Yaroslav Deminavg 46¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$189	44% 71-91 (162)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 53.2¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$123.73	52% 13778-12574 (26352)
└ Yaroslav Demin leg	Yaroslav Deminavg 53.2¢	$849.67	$1.1K	+$277.26
└ Yu-Hsiou Hsu leg	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 43.6¢	$475.03	$321.5	-$153.54
TRCMCTR	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 54¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$122.11	55% 3948-3180 (7128)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$60.97	49% 19143-19539 (38682)
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793	Yaroslav Deminavg 71¢	$872.1	$865.96	-$6.14	63% 158-92 (250)
ES Escobarzzzz	Yaroslav Deminavg 40.1¢	$764.95	$771.96	+$7.01	38% 43-70 (113)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 59¢	$742.3	$602.1	-$77.98	60% 4058-2737 (6795)
└ Yaroslav Demin leg	Yaroslav Deminavg 59¢	$393.65	$464.07	+$45.51
└ Yu-Hsiou Hsu leg	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 57.8¢	$261.57	$138.03	-$123.49
88M	Yaroslav Deminavg 40¢	$400	$405	+$5	42% 779-1079 (1858)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 33.8¢	$245.61	$207.01	-$38.6	48% 912-980 (1892)
VeryLucky888	Yaroslav Deminavg 43¢	$645	$168.29	+$10.98	58% 41846-30383 (72229)
heyboy800CTR	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 64¢	$128	$127	-$1	61% 937-592 (1529)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 59.5¢	$174.2	$112.31	-$61.89	58% 18635-13702 (32337)
└ Yu-Hsiou Hsu leg	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 59.5¢	$125.53	$64.36	-$61.17
└ Yaroslav Demin leg	Yaroslav Deminavg 70.5¢	$48.67	$47.96	-$0.72
KE Kev69CTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 53¢	$59.32	$55.4	-$3.92	54% 578-488 (1066)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 69¢	$13.8	$14.3	+$0.5	51% 1441-1384 (2825)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 56¢	$10	$8.84	-$1.16	67% 23327-11724 (35051)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 48¢	$4.56	$6.79	+$2.23	53% 4540-4093 (8633)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.65	+$0.25	49% 7885-8203 (16088)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yaroslav Deminavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.3	+$0.1	48% 2374-2612 (4986)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Yu-Hsiou Hsuavg 55¢	$17.05	$0.64	+$2.79	56% 1844-1439 (3283)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$5,484.92

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$86.41

Record

59%

45754-32097 (77851)

Both legs:

Yaroslav Demin$2,305.3656.7¢+$522.71

Yu-Hsiou Hsu$3,179.5637.7¢-$609.12

Ivan948

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$1,932

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$189

Record

44%

71-91 (162)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$1,324.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$123.73

Record

52%

13778-12574 (26352)

Both legs:

Yaroslav Demin$849.6753.2¢+$277.26

Yu-Hsiou Hsu$475.0343.6¢-$153.54

TRCMCTR

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$1,465.33

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$122.11

Record

55%

3948-3180 (7128)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$1,299.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$60.97

Record

49%

19143-19539 (38682)

0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$872.1

Value

$865.96

PnL

-$6.14

Record

63%

158-92 (250)

Escobarzzzz

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$764.95

Value

$771.96

PnL

+$7.01

Record

38%

43-70 (113)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$742.3

Value

$602.1

PnL

-$77.98

Record

60%

4058-2737 (6795)

Both legs:

Yaroslav Demin$393.6559¢+$45.51

Yu-Hsiou Hsu$261.5757.8¢-$123.49

88M

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$400

Value

$405

PnL

+$5

Record

42%

779-1079 (1858)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$245.61

Value

$207.01

PnL

-$38.6

Record

48%

912-980 (1892)

VeryLucky888

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$645

Value

$168.29

PnL

+$10.98

Record

58%

41846-30383 (72229)

heyboy800CTR

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$128

Value

$127

PnL

-$1

Record

61%

937-592 (1529)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$174.2

Value

$112.31

PnL

-$61.89

Record

58%

18635-13702 (32337)

Both legs:

Yu-Hsiou Hsu$125.5359.5¢-$61.17

Yaroslav Demin$48.6770.5¢-$0.72

Kev69CTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$59.32

Value

$55.4

PnL

-$3.92

Record

54%

578-488 (1066)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$13.8

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

1441-1384 (2825)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$10

Value

$8.84

PnL

-$1.16

Record

67%

23327-11724 (35051)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$4.56

Value

$6.79

PnL

+$2.23

Record

53%

4540-4093 (8633)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

7885-8203 (16088)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yaroslav Demin

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2374-2612 (4986)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Yu-Hsiou Hsu

Invested

$17.05

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$2.79

Record

56%

1844-1439 (3283)

Research grade

NeutralYaroslav Demin at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yaroslav Demin

7 of 16 top traders (44%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yaroslav Demin wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.