Guayaquil: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri
9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Diego Dedura-Palomero (69%) · Diego Dedura-Palomero at 64¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Diego Dedura-Palomero
13
Diego Dedura-Palomero 69%
2 arb excluded
$27.5K
$-1.4K
65.6¢ → 63.5¢
-3% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralDiego Dedura-Palomero at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 13 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Diego Dedura-Palomero. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793 | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 65.4¢ | $9.8K | $9.0K | -$786.99 | 62% 149-90 (239) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 44.8¢ | $7.7K | $6.9K | -$844 | 49% 18442-18863 (37305) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 55.3¢ | $5.0K | $5.5K | +$530.25 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
| └ Diego Dedura-Palomero leg | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 55.3¢ | $3.2K | $3.5K | +$284.99 | |
| └ Genaro Alberto Olivieri leg | Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 35¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$245.26 | |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 34¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$285.41 | 47% 2378-2648 (5026) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 59.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$105.03 | 52% 13507-12361 (25868) |
| └ Diego Dedura-Palomero leg | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 59.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$16.12 | |
| └ Genaro Alberto Olivieri leg | Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 33.8¢ | $497.7 | $586.6 | +$88.9 | |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 69.5¢ | $973 | $841.97 | -$131.03 | 51% 1218-1152 (2370) |
GH ghostorder | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 63¢ | $540.15 | $515.63 | -$24.52 | 62% 4241-2614 (6855) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 36.5¢ | $902.05 | $317.73 | +$91.12 | 60% 3925-2655 (6580) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Genaro Alberto Olivieriavg 44.1¢ | $187.29 | $169.42 | -$17.87 | 59% 2514-1743 (4257) |
1L 1lovejump | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 63.3¢ | $235.78 | $163.43 | -$6.35 | 53% 596-525 (1121) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 65¢ | $174.42 | $161.38 | -$13.04 | 54% 16754-14059 (30813) |
EF efntrick<$100 | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 59.5¢ | $33.22 | $35.47 | +$2.25 | 48% 3630-3886 (7516) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 68.1¢ | $33.01 | $32.02 | -$0.99 | 58% 18318-13458 (31776) |
SC SchruteBucks | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 67.9¢ | $109.3 | $6.58 | +$5.27 | 56% 1793-1401 (3194) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Diego Dedura-Palomeroavg 62.5¢ | $5.04 | $4.96 | -$0.08 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
Invested
$9,794.68
Value
$9.0K
PnL
-$786.99
Record
62%
149-90 (239)
Invested
$7,695.28
Value
$6.9K
PnL
-$844
Record
49%
18442-18863 (37305)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$5,013.44
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$530.25
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,656.15
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$285.41
Record
47%
2378-2648 (5026)
Invested
$1,799.33
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$105.03
Record
52%
13507-12361 (25868)
Both legs:
Invested
$973
Value
$841.97
PnL
-$131.03
Record
51%
1218-1152 (2370)
Invested
$540.15
Value
$515.63
PnL
-$24.52
Record
62%
4241-2614 (6855)
Invested
$902.05
Value
$317.73
PnL
+$91.12
Record
60%
3925-2655 (6580)
Invested
$187.29
Value
$169.42
PnL
-$17.87
Record
59%
2514-1743 (4257)
Invested
$235.78
Value
$163.43
PnL
-$6.35
Record
53%
596-525 (1121)
Invested
$174.42
Value
$161.38
PnL
-$13.04
Record
54%
16754-14059 (30813)
Invested
$33.22
Value
$35.47
PnL
+$2.25
Record
48%
3630-3886 (7516)
Invested
$33.01
Value
$32.02
PnL
-$0.99
Record
58%
18318-13458 (31776)
Invested
$109.3
Value
$6.58
PnL
+$5.27
Record
56%
1793-1401 (3194)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.04
Value
$4.96
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793
Diego Dedura-Palomero — $9.0K
omnibus-076daa
CTRGenaro Alberto Olivieri — $6.9K
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
CTRGenaro Alberto Olivieri — $1.9K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Diego Dedura-Palomero — $841.97
ghostorder
Diego Dedura-Palomero — $515.63
thestingsnake
CTRGenaro Alberto Olivieri — $317.73
Saber-greed
CTRGenaro Alberto Olivieri — $169.42
1lovejump
Diego Dedura-Palomero — $163.43