Brest: Martin Damm vs Clement Tabur

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Martin Damm (82%) · Martin Damm at 80¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 6

Martin Damm80¢Clement Tabur20¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Martin Damm

Consensus Traders

Martin Damm 82%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.0K

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 79.5¢

+16% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralMartin Damm at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Damm

9 of 11 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Martin Damm80%

Clement Tabur21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Martin Damm9 traders

Total Value$22.6K

Total Shares27,147

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Clement Tabur2 traders

Total Value$77.81

Total Shares263

Combined PnL-$0.68

Martin Damm — 82%Clement Tabur — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Martin Dammavg 74.3¢	$12.2K	$14.0K	+$1.8K	54% 17115-14333 (31448)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Martin Dammavg 71.9¢	$9.4K	$8.7K	-$681.3	59% 45379-31733 (77112)
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 71.9¢	$5.8K	$6.4K	+$612.08
└ Clement Tabur leg	Clement Taburavg 32¢	$3.6K	$2.3K	$-1.3K
RN1	Martin Dammavg 56.3¢	$4.0K	$6.1K	+$2.0K	54% 56317-48472 (104789)
VeryLucky888	Martin Dammavg 63¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	+$43.89	58% 41493-30115 (71608)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Martin Dammavg 58.5¢	$873.3	$994.17	+$120.87	52% 13723-12523 (26246)
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 58.5¢	$585	$795	+$210
└ Clement Tabur leg	Clement Taburavg 29.7¢	$288.3	$199.17	-$89.13
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Clement Taburavg 32.9¢	$1.9K	$657.26	+$209.18	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 64.5¢	$352.4	$434.24	+$273.03
└ Clement Tabur leg	Clement Taburavg 32.9¢	$358.13	$223.02	-$63.86
MR MrDouche	Martin Dammavg 77¢	$544.7	$541.16	-$3.54	82% 1685-358 (2043)
heyboy800	Martin Dammavg 78¢	$500	$490.38	-$9.62	61% 913-578 (1491)
0xheavy888	Martin Dammavg 64¢	$142.72	$143.83	+$1.11	55% 7053-5657 (12710)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Clement Taburavg 41¢	$41	$39.5	-$1.5	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Clement Taburavg 23¢	$37.49	$38.31	+$0.82	50% 24906-24594 (49500)
tradecraft<$100	Martin Dammavg 63.8¢	$28.42	$26.6	-$1.83	51% 5974-5666 (11640)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Martin Dammavg 64¢	$19.2	$23.25	+$4.05	51% 1398-1344 (2742)
TRCM<$100	Martin Dammavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.2	+$0.1	55% 3937-3175 (7112)

HomeRunHazard

Martin Damm

Invested

$12,159.29

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

54%

17115-14333 (31448)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$9,383.24

Value

$8.7K

PnL

-$681.3

Record

59%

45379-31733 (77112)

Both legs:

Martin Damm$5,787.6671.9¢+$612.08

Clement Tabur$3,595.5832¢$-1.3K

RN1

Martin Damm

Invested

$4,046.13

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

54%

56317-48472 (104789)

VeryLucky888

Martin Damm

Invested

$1,689.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$43.89

Record

58%

41493-30115 (71608)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$873.3

Value

$994.17

PnL

+$120.87

Record

52%

13723-12523 (26246)

Both legs:

Martin Damm$58558.5¢+$210

Clement Tabur$288.329.7¢-$89.13

38791873984189ARB<$100

Clement Tabur

Invested

$1,934.56

Value

$657.26

PnL

+$209.18

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

Both legs:

Martin Damm$352.464.5¢+$273.03

Clement Tabur$358.1332.9¢-$63.86

MrDouche

Martin Damm

Invested

$544.7

Value

$541.16

PnL

-$3.54

Record

82%

1685-358 (2043)

heyboy800

Martin Damm

Invested

$500

Value

$490.38

PnL

-$9.62

Record

61%

913-578 (1491)

0xheavy888

Martin Damm

Invested

$142.72

Value

$143.83

PnL

+$1.11

Record

55%

7053-5657 (12710)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Clement Tabur

Invested

$41

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

sentrioCTR<$100

Clement Tabur

Invested

$37.49

Value

$38.31

PnL

+$0.82

Record

50%

24906-24594 (49500)

tradecraft<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$28.42

Value

$26.6

PnL

-$1.83

Record

51%

5974-5666 (11640)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$19.2

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$4.05

Record

51%

1398-1344 (2742)

TRCM<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

3937-3175 (7112)

Research grade

NeutralMartin Damm at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Damm

9 of 11 top traders (82%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Martin Damm wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.