Brest: Martin Damm vs Dino Prizmic

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Martin Damm (57%) · Martin Damm at 80¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 7

Martin Damm80¢Dino Prizmic20¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Martin Damm

Consensus Traders

Martin Damm 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 80¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMartin Damm at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Damm

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Martin Damm80%

Dino Prizmic20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Martin Damm8 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares18,365

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Dino Prizmic6 traders

Total Value$459.7

Total Shares2,248

Combined PnL-$629.05

Martin Damm — 57%Dino Prizmic — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Martin Damm. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDino Prizmic 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpDino Prizmic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDino Prizmic 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Martin Damm 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Martin Dammavg 61.6¢	$4.2K	$5.5K	+$1.3K	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239	Martin Dammavg 50¢	$3.3K	$5.1K	+$1.8K	38% 499-808 (1307)
UP UpTheBlues	Martin Dammavg 73.5¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$141.27	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Martin Dammavg 63.9¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$157.68	52% 13790-12592 (26382)
0X 0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793CTR	Dino Prizmicavg 54.5¢	$983.6	$361.06	-$622.54	63% 159-95 (254)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Martin Dammavg 71.5¢	$809.19	$284.97	-$73.98	53% 665-587 (1252)
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 71.5¢	$225.5	$206.67	+$10.75
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 53.1¢	$120.55	$78.3	-$84.74
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Dino Prizmicavg 23¢	$343.87	$80.81	+$1.72	48% 927-999 (1926)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Martin Dammavg 46¢	$40.49	$68.65	+$28.17	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
HRTrading<$100	Martin Dammavg 78¢	$14.17	$14.26	+$0.09	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 23.5¢	$12.4	$7.66	-$4.74	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 24¢	$7.39	$6.93	-$0.46	49% 19169-19561 (38730)
SE sentrio<$100	Martin Dammavg 78¢	$3.9	$3.98	+$0.08	50% 24920-24613 (49533)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 53¢	$5.3	$2.25	-$3.05	85% 5320-920 (6240)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Martin Dammavg 47¢	$0.89	$1.47	+$0.58	65% 1708-928 (2636)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 52¢	$0.98	$1	+$0.03	48% 2396-2627 (5023)

RN1

Martin Damm

Invested

$4,184.04

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239

Martin Damm

Invested

$3,289

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

38%

499-808 (1307)

UpTheBlues

Martin Damm

Invested

$2,540.44

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$141.27

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Martin Damm

Invested

$1,743.89

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$157.68

Record

52%

13790-12592 (26382)

0xc1a9273b15a17d21AF09DddB42b9239B93D4e2Db-1777826537793CTR

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$983.6

Value

$361.06

PnL

-$622.54

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$809.19

Value

$284.97

PnL

-$73.98

Record

53%

665-587 (1252)

Both legs:

Martin Damm$225.571.5¢+$10.75

Dino Prizmic$120.5553.1¢-$84.74

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$343.87

Value

$80.81

PnL

+$1.72

Record

48%

927-999 (1926)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$40.49

Value

$68.65

PnL

+$28.17

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

HRTrading<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$14.17

Value

$14.26

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$12.4

Value

$7.66

PnL

-$4.74

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$7.39

Value

$6.93

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

19169-19561 (38730)

sentrio<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$3.9

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

24920-24613 (49533)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$5.3

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$3.05

Record

85%

5320-920 (6240)

darkumbreon88<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.58

Record

65%

1708-928 (2636)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$0.98

Value

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2396-2627 (5023)

Research grade

NeutralMartin Damm at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Damm

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Martin Damm. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDino Prizmic 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpDino Prizmic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrDino Prizmic 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Martin Damm 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Martin Damm wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.