Brest: Martin Damm vs Ugo Blanchet

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Martin Damm (82%) · Martin Damm at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 5

Martin Damm>99¢Ugo Blanchet<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Martin Damm

Consensus Traders

Martin Damm 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$225.09

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralMartin Damm at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Damm

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Martin Damm100%

Ugo Blanchet0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Martin Damm9 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares8,107

Combined PnL+$226.16

Ugo Blanchet2 traders

Total Value$10.11

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$1.08

Martin Damm — 82%Ugo Blanchet — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Martin Dammavg 84.5¢	$5.8K	$6.0K	+$166.56	54% 17004-14250 (31254)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Martin Dammavg 84.5¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$240.51	59% 45094-31483 (76577)
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 84.5¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$79.4
└ Ugo Blanchet leg	Ugo Blanchetavg 18.1¢	$876.79	$556.88	-$319.91
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Martin Dammavg 82.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$36.82	52% 13648-12476 (26124)
BI BillBenter2026	Martin Dammavg 75¢	$125.27	$151.14	+$25.86	58% 18489-13574 (32063)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 29.4¢	$327.54	$118.69	+$2.92	53% 652-569 (1221)
└ Ugo Blanchet leg	Ugo Blanchetavg 29.4¢	$71.12	$64.06	-$5.45
└ Martin Damm leg	Martin Dammavg 70.1¢	$52.1	$54.64	+$8.37
0xheavy888<$100	Martin Dammavg 71.2¢	$96.56	$95.68	-$0.88	55% 6990-5610 (12600)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Martin Dammavg 72¢	$50.21	$49.17	-$1.05	65% 1690-913 (2603)
tradecraft<$100	Martin Dammavg 90.9¢	$20.45	$19.91	-$0.54	51% 5922-5598 (11520)
HRTrading<$100	Martin Dammavg 89¢	$12.02	$11.53	-$0.49	52% 3688-3350 (7038)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Martin Dammavg 70.5¢	$7.05	$7.05	-$0	47% 2163-2470 (4633)
TRCMCTR<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 7.8¢	$6.6	$5.1	-$1.5	55% 3921-3162 (7083)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Ugo Blanchetavg 27¢	$4.59	$5.02	+$0.42	62% 13674-8506 (22180)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Martin Dammavg 76.3¢	$11.45	$4.01	-$0.12	56% 1822-1419 (3241)

HomeRunHazard

Martin Damm

Invested

$5,799.58

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$166.56

Record

54%

17004-14250 (31254)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$2,571.38

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$240.51

Record

59%

45094-31483 (76577)

Both legs:

Martin Damm$1,694.5984.5¢+$79.4

Ugo Blanchet$876.7918.1¢-$319.91

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Martin Damm

Invested

$1,192.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$36.82

Record

52%

13648-12476 (26124)

BillBenter2026

Martin Damm

Invested

$125.27

Value

$151.14

PnL

+$25.86

Record

58%

18489-13574 (32063)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$327.54

Value

$118.69

PnL

+$2.92

Record

53%

652-569 (1221)

Both legs:

Ugo Blanchet$71.1229.4¢-$5.45

Martin Damm$52.170.1¢+$8.37

0xheavy888<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$96.56

Value

$95.68

PnL

-$0.88

Record

55%

6990-5610 (12600)

darkumbreon88<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$50.21

Value

$49.17

PnL

-$1.05

Record

65%

1690-913 (2603)

tradecraft<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$20.45

Value

$19.91

PnL

-$0.54

Record

51%

5922-5598 (11520)

HRTrading<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$12.02

Value

$11.53

PnL

-$0.49

Record

52%

3688-3350 (7038)

ameisgoat11<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

2163-2470 (4633)

TRCMCTR<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$6.6

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$1.5

Record

55%

3921-3162 (7083)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Ugo Blanchet

Invested

$4.59

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.42

Record

62%

13674-8506 (22180)

SchruteBucks<$100

Martin Damm

Invested

$11.45

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0.12

Record

56%

1822-1419 (3241)

Research grade

NeutralMartin Damm at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Martin Damm

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Martin Damm wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.