Ningbo: Jie Cui vs Petr Bar Biryukov

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Jie Cui (73%) · Jie Cui at 76¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 6

Jie Cui76¢Petr Bar Biryukov24¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jie Cui

Consensus Traders

Jie Cui 73%

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$395.42

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 75.5¢

-5% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralJie Cui at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jie Cui

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jie Cui76%

Petr Bar Biryukov25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jie Cui11 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares8,676

Combined PnL+$556.13

Petr Bar Biryukov4 traders

Total Value$239.54

Total Shares1,858

Combined PnL-$160.7

Jie Cui — 73%Petr Bar Biryukov — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Jie Cui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJie Cui 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJie Cui 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJie Cui 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jie Cui 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Jie Cuiavg 80.1¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$176.04	51% 5972-5662 (11634)
38 38791873984189	Jie Cuiavg 79.4¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	+$50.41	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
JO JoeytheReal	Jie Cuiavg 73.9¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$203.5	40% 30-45 (75)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jie Cuiavg 81.9¢	$996.66	$1.0K	+$4.62	52% 13717-12522 (26239)
TH thestingsnake	Jie Cuiavg 83.4¢	$623.24	$657.25	+$34	60% 4031-2722 (6753)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jie Cuiavg 81.8¢	$589.45	$634.19	+$44.74	49% 18975-19389 (38364)
VeryLucky888	Jie Cuiavg 71¢	$434.23	$415.53	+$11.8	58% 41483-30105 (71588)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Jie Cuiavg 84¢	$294	$308	+$14	51% 1395-1342 (2737)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 21.8¢	$318.44	$175.45	-$142.99	48% 752-809 (1561)
BI BillBenter2026	Jie Cuiavg 83.2¢	$113.95	$120.56	+$6.61	58% 18576-13636 (32212)
EU Eulhunter	Jie Cuiavg 80¢	$95.2	$104.72	+$9.52	55% 5712-4750 (10462)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 15.1¢	$35.36	$32.48	-$2.88	52% 3994-3636 (7630)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 17.5¢	$41.94	$28.76	-$13.17	38% 3184-5183 (8367)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Jie Cuiavg 70.5¢	$7.05	$4.52	+$0.87	86% 5075-857 (5932)
poshposhCTR<$100	Petr Bar Biryukovavg 19¢	$4.5	$2.85	-$1.66	59% 9909-6885 (16794)

tradecraft

Jie Cui

Invested

$1,785.75

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$176.04

Record

51%

5972-5662 (11634)

38791873984189

Jie Cui

Invested

$1,707.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$50.41

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

JoeytheReal

Jie Cui

Invested

$1,070

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$203.5

Record

40%

30-45 (75)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jie Cui

Invested

$996.66

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$4.62

Record

52%

13717-12522 (26239)

thestingsnake

Jie Cui

Invested

$623.24

Value

$657.25

PnL

+$34

Record

60%

4031-2722 (6753)

omnibus-076daa

Jie Cui

Invested

$589.45

Value

$634.19

PnL

+$44.74

Record

49%

18975-19389 (38364)

VeryLucky888

Jie Cui

Invested

$434.23

Value

$415.53

PnL

+$11.8

Record

58%

41483-30105 (71588)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Jie Cui

Invested

$294

Value

$308

PnL

+$14

Record

51%

1395-1342 (2737)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$318.44

Value

$175.45

PnL

-$142.99

Record

48%

752-809 (1561)

BillBenter2026

Jie Cui

Invested

$113.95

Value

$120.56

PnL

+$6.61

Record

58%

18576-13636 (32212)

Eulhunter

Jie Cui

Invested

$95.2

Value

$104.72

PnL

+$9.52

Record

55%

5712-4750 (10462)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$35.36

Value

$32.48

PnL

-$2.88

Record

52%

3994-3636 (7630)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$41.94

Value

$28.76

PnL

-$13.17

Record

38%

3184-5183 (8367)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Jie Cui

Invested

$7.05

Value

$4.52

PnL

+$0.87

Record

86%

5075-857 (5932)

poshposhCTR<$100

Petr Bar Biryukov

Invested

$4.5

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$1.66

Record

59%

9909-6885 (16794)

Research grade

NeutralJie Cui at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jie Cui

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Jie Cui. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJie Cui 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJie Cui 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJie Cui 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Jie Cui 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jie Cui wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.