Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Andrea Colombo, while the market favors Adrian Andreev (88%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Taranto: Andrea Colombo vs Adrian Andreev
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Andrea Colombo (67%) · Andrea Colombo at 12¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Andrea Colombo
3
Andrea Colombo 67%
$109.22
-$34.97
Research grade
AvoidAndrea Colombo at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Adrian Andreev 88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Adrian Andreevavg 88¢ | $72.58 | $72.58 | +$0 | 52% 13922-12694 (26616) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Andrea Colomboavg 32¢ | $32 | $32 | -$30.75 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Andrea Colomboavg 31¢ | $4.49 | $4.64 | -$4.22 | 58% 10646-7629 (18275) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.