Erste Bank Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Grigor Dimitrov

7 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Flavio Cobolli (35%) · Flavio Cobolli at 67¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 3

Flavio Cobolli67¢Grigor Dimitrov33¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Flavio Cobolli

Consensus Traders

Flavio Cobolli 35%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.3K

Combined PnL

-$462.07

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 67¢

-4% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlavio Cobolli at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Flavio Cobolli

7 of 20 top traders (35%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Flavio Cobolli67%

Grigor Dimitrov33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Flavio Cobolli7 traders

Total Value$20.2K

Total Shares28,796

Combined PnL-$371.63

Grigor Dimitrov13 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares20,814

Combined PnL-$90.43

Flavio Cobolli — 35%Grigor Dimitrov — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Flavio Cobolli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlavio Cobolli 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFlavio Cobolli 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrigor Dimitrov 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrigor Dimitrov 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Grigor Dimitrov 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Flavio Cobolliavg 69.1¢	$10.4K	$10.6K	+$139.45	54% 16754-14059 (30813)
DM dmoralezARB<$100	Flavio Cobolliavg 74.5¢	$20.4K	$7.9K	-$192.09	61% 176-111 (287)
└ Flavio Cobolli leg	Flavio Cobolliavg 74.5¢	$6.3K	$5.6K	-$302.04
└ Grigor Dimitrov leg	Grigor Dimitrovavg 29.7¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$109.95
RN1ARB<$100	Flavio Cobolliavg 83.6¢	$7.9K	$6.9K	$-1.1K	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
└ Flavio Cobolli leg	Flavio Cobolliavg 83.6¢	$5.7K	$4.6K	$-1.1K
└ Grigor Dimitrov leg	Grigor Dimitrovavg 32¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$69.84
KA kahe	Flavio Cobolliavg 68¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$80.88	68% 578-274 (852)
ED Eddd1xCTR	Grigor Dimitrovavg 34.1¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$120.54	51% 193-187 (380)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Flavio Cobolliavg 70¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$138.41	52% 13507-12361 (25868)
└ Grigor Dimitrov leg	Grigor Dimitrovavg 27.8¢	$977.72	$1.2K	+$184.95
└ Flavio Cobolli leg	Flavio Cobolliavg 70¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$46.54
TH thestingsnake	Flavio Cobolliavg 73.7¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$194.5	60% 3925-2655 (6580)
IL Illiasca	Flavio Cobolliavg 69.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$46.67	65% 250-134 (384)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Grigor Dimitrovavg 32.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$97	51% 1218-1152 (2370)
└ Grigor Dimitrov leg	Grigor Dimitrovavg 32.2¢	$805	$825	+$20
└ Flavio Cobolli leg	Flavio Cobolliavg 80¢	$720	$603	-$117
TO tomb2456CTR	Grigor Dimitrovavg 35.4¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$114.98	50% 275-271 (546)
TG tghj20CTR	Grigor Dimitrovavg 32¢	$725.86	$748.54	+$22.68	51% 44-43 (87)
1L 1lovejump	Flavio Cobolliavg 76.5¢	$2.4K	$659.89	-$167.74	53% 596-525 (1121)
VeryLucky888CTR	Grigor Dimitrovavg 31¢	$244.53	$260.31	+$15.78	58% 40458-29241 (69699)
GH ghostorderCTR	Grigor Dimitrovavg 15¢	$96.8	$212.97	+$116.16	62% 4241-2614 (6855)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR	Grigor Dimitrovavg 33¢	$606.06	$184.85	-$15.15	64% 107-59 (166)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Grigor Dimitrovavg 33¢	$588.23	$179.41	-$14.71	53% 305-268 (573)
tradecraft	Flavio Cobolliavg 77¢	$164.01	$142.71	-$21.3	52% 5834-5451 (11285)
SL slimjoeCTR<$100	Grigor Dimitrovavg 30¢	$52.93	$58.22	+$5.29	51% 6432-6108 (12540)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Grigor Dimitrovavg 25.9¢	$44	$49.5	+$12.1	48% 3630-3886 (7516)
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100	Grigor Dimitrovavg 40¢	$52	$42.9	-$9.1	61% 1704-1068 (2772)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Flavio Cobolliavg 67¢	$39.58	$39.58	+$0	65% 1650-894 (2544)
poshposhCTR<$100	Grigor Dimitrovavg 15.6¢	$9.02	$19.12	+$10.1	60% 9138-6084 (15222)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Grigor Dimitrovavg 30¢	$11.55	$12.71	+$1.16	62% 13581-8424 (22005)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Grigor Dimitrovavg 29¢	$5.56	$6.33	+$0.77	59% 29949-20668 (50617)

HomeRunHazard

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$10,417.92

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$139.45

Record

54%

16754-14059 (30813)

dmoralezARB<$100

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$20,365.8

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$192.09

Record

61%

176-111 (287)

Both legs:

Flavio Cobolli$6,263.374.5¢-$302.04

Grigor Dimitrov$2,024.2729.7¢+$109.95

RN1ARB<$100

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$7,935.75

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

Both legs:

Flavio Cobolli$5,703.6283.6¢$-1.1K

Grigor Dimitrov$2,232.1332¢+$69.84

kahe

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$5,500

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$80.88

Record

68%

578-274 (852)

Eddd1xCTR

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$3,864.42

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$120.54

Record

51%

193-187 (380)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$2,063.69

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$138.41

Record

52%

13507-12361 (25868)

Both legs:

Grigor Dimitrov$977.7227.8¢+$184.95

Flavio Cobolli$1,085.9770¢-$46.54

thestingsnake

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$2,111.44

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$194.5

Record

60%

3925-2655 (6580)

Illiasca

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$46.67

Record

65%

250-134 (384)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$1,525

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$97

Record

51%

1218-1152 (2370)

Both legs:

Grigor Dimitrov$80532.2¢+$20

Flavio Cobolli$72080¢-$117

tomb2456CTR

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$1,414.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$114.98

Record

50%

275-271 (546)

tghj20CTR

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$725.86

Value

$748.54

PnL

+$22.68

Record

51%

44-43 (87)

1lovejump

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$2,372.13

Value

$659.89

PnL

-$167.74

Record

53%

596-525 (1121)

VeryLucky888CTR

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$244.53

Value

$260.31

PnL

+$15.78

Record

58%

40458-29241 (69699)

ghostorderCTR

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$96.8

Value

$212.97

PnL

+$116.16

Record

62%

4241-2614 (6855)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192CTR

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$606.06

Value

$184.85

PnL

-$15.15

Record

64%

107-59 (166)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$588.23

Value

$179.41

PnL

-$14.71

Record

53%

305-268 (573)

tradecraft

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$164.01

Value

$142.71

PnL

-$21.3

Record

52%

5834-5451 (11285)

slimjoeCTR<$100

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$52.93

Value

$58.22

PnL

+$5.29

Record

51%

6432-6108 (12540)

efntrickCTR<$100

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$44

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$12.1

Record

48%

3630-3886 (7516)

0x1111111111CTR<$100

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$52

Value

$42.9

PnL

-$9.1

Record

61%

1704-1068 (2772)

darkumbreon88<$100

Flavio Cobolli

Invested

$39.58

Value

$39.58

PnL

+$0

Record

65%

1650-894 (2544)

poshposhCTR<$100

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$9.02

Value

$19.12

PnL

+$10.1

Record

60%

9138-6084 (15222)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$11.55

Value

$12.71

PnL

+$1.16

Record

62%

13581-8424 (22005)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Grigor Dimitrov

Invested

$5.56

Value

$6.33

PnL

+$0.77

Record

59%

29949-20668 (50617)

Research grade

NeutralFlavio Cobolli at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Flavio Cobolli

7 of 20 top traders (35%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Flavio Cobolli. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlavio Cobolli 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpFlavio Cobolli 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGrigor Dimitrov 100% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedGrigor Dimitrov 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Grigor Dimitrov 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Flavio Cobolli wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.