Guayaquil: Lorenzo Claverie vs Joao Lucas Da Silva
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Joao Lucas Da Silva (56%) · Joao Lucas Da Silva at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Joao Lucas Da Silva
9
Joao Lucas Da Silva 56%
$10.4K
-$387.84
90.6¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralJoao Lucas Da Silva at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 90¢ | $5.5K | $4.8K | -$704.95 | 49% 18616-19046 (37662) |
UP UpTheBlues | Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 89.1¢ | $2.9K | $3.2K | +$314.11 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 94.3¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$20.87 | 54% 16871-14147 (31018) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 98.6¢ | $253.64 | $248.33 | -$5.31 | 52% 13567-12407 (25974) |
1L 1lovejump | Joao Lucas Da Silvaavg 86.3¢ | $564.09 | $175.69 | +$41.03 | 54% 632-549 (1181) |
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100 | Lorenzo Claverieavg 1¢ | $20 | $10 | -$10 | 58% 2735-1960 (4695) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Lorenzo Claverieavg 20¢ | $10.93 | $6.07 | +$0.69 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Lorenzo Claverieavg 1¢ | $5 | $2.5 | -$2.5 | 55% 3918-3148 (7066) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Lorenzo Claverieavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $0.02 | -$0.03 | 59% 30098-20824 (50922) |
Invested
$5,517.01
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$704.95
Record
49%
18616-19046 (37662)
Invested
$2,927.65
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$314.11
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$1,934.56
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$20.87
Record
54%
16871-14147 (31018)
Invested
$253.64
Value
$248.33
PnL
-$5.31
Record
52%
13567-12407 (25974)
Invested
$564.09
Value
$175.69
PnL
+$41.03
Record
54%
632-549 (1181)
Invested
$20
Value
$10
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
2735-1960 (4695)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$10.93
Value
$6.07
PnL
+$0.69
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
55%
3918-3148 (7066)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.03
Record
59%
30098-20824 (50922)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
omnibus-076daa
Joao Lucas Da Silva — $4.8K
UpTheBlues
Joao Lucas Da Silva — $3.2K
HomeRunHazard
Joao Lucas Da Silva — $1.9K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Joao Lucas Da Silva — $248.33
1lovejump
Joao Lucas Da Silva — $175.69
flatbarrel
CTRLorenzo Claverie — $10
VeryLucky888
CTRLorenzo Claverie — $6.07
TRCM
CTRLorenzo Claverie — $2.5
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRLorenzo Claverie — $0.02