Brest: Federico Cina vs Dino Prizmic

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Dino Prizmic (69%) · Dino Prizmic at 87¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 6

Federico Cina14¢Dino Prizmic86¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dino Prizmic

Consensus Traders

Dino Prizmic 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$476.08

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 86.5¢

+30% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDino Prizmic at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dino Prizmic

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Federico Cina14%

Dino Prizmic87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dino Prizmic9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares7,518

Combined PnL+$478.09

Federico Cina4 traders

Total Value$29.62

Total Shares123

Combined PnL-$2.01

Dino Prizmic — 69%Federico Cina — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Federico Cinaavg 47¢	$6.2K	$5.1K	$-1.1K	49% 18979-19390 (38369)
└ Dino Prizmic leg	Dino Prizmicavg 68¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$18.19
└ Federico Cina leg	Federico Cinaavg 47¢	$3.5K	$2.4K	$-1.2K
RN1	Dino Prizmicavg 61¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$358.77	54% 56315-48472 (104787)
HO HomeRunHazard	Dino Prizmicavg 84.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$4.54	54% 17115-14330 (31445)
38 38791873984189	Dino Prizmicavg 63.3¢	$467.75	$418.83	+$62.6	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Dino Prizmicavg 59.2¢	$202.65	$225.62	+$22.96	52% 13719-12523 (26242)
TH thestingsnake	Dino Prizmicavg 61.6¢	$116.39	$155.47	+$43.33	60% 4032-2723 (6755)
0xheavy888<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 68¢	$72.25	$78.63	+$6.38	56% 7053-5654 (12707)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 86.3¢	$89.52	$77.32	-$12.2	58% 18578-13636 (32214)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Federico Cinaavg 31¢	$67.27	$17.94	-$1.97	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
HRTrading<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 85¢	$9.52	$9.46	-$0.06	52% 3994-3637 (7631)
tradecraft<$100	Dino Prizmicavg 54¢	$5.4	$6.25	+$0.85	51% 5972-5664 (11636)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Federico Cinaavg 15¢	$5.3	$5.48	+$0.18	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
TRCMCTR<$100	Federico Cinaavg 38¢	$5.7	$4.43	-$1.28	55% 3937-3174 (7111)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Federico Cinaavg 46¢	$46	$1.78	+$1.06	56% 1837-1429 (3266)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$6,202.57

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

18979-19390 (38369)

Both legs:

Dino Prizmic$2,669.8768¢+$18.19

Federico Cina$3,532.747¢$-1.2K

RN1

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$2,954.46

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$358.77

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

HomeRunHazard

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$1,360.73

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$4.54

Record

54%

17115-14330 (31445)

38791873984189

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$467.75

Value

$418.83

PnL

+$62.6

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$202.65

Value

$225.62

PnL

+$22.96

Record

52%

13719-12523 (26242)

thestingsnake

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$116.39

Value

$155.47

PnL

+$43.33

Record

60%

4032-2723 (6755)

0xheavy888<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$72.25

Value

$78.63

PnL

+$6.38

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

BillBenter2026<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$89.52

Value

$77.32

PnL

-$12.2

Record

58%

18578-13636 (32214)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$67.27

Value

$17.94

PnL

-$1.97

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

HRTrading<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

3994-3637 (7631)

tradecraft<$100

Dino Prizmic

Invested

$5.4

Value

$6.25

PnL

+$0.85

Record

51%

5972-5664 (11636)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$0.18

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

TRCMCTR<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$5.7

Value

$4.43

PnL

-$1.28

Record

55%

3937-3174 (7111)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Federico Cina

Invested

$46

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$1.06

Record

56%

1837-1429 (3266)

Research grade

NeutralDino Prizmic at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dino Prizmic

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dino Prizmic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.